Why the Padres must manage Joe Musgrove’s workload and role in 2026

The San Diego Padres are likely going to endure a ton of change in their starting rotation, with the expectation that Michael King and Dylan Cease will be in new threads in 2026. The team is set to welcome back Joe Musgrove after he missed the entirety of 2025 recovering from his torn UCL.

Musgrove, 33, signed a five-year, $100 million extension at the beginning of the 2022 season and has been solid during his time with the Padres. In 98 games, he posted a 3.20 ERA over the course of 559.1 innings pitched.

While rehabbing to get back to his old form, it was reported that Musgrove experienced a setback in his training. He felt a tendinitis-like sensation in his throwing arm, which apparently “slowed down” his throwing progression, said Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

After this setback, Musgrove definitely has some work to do ahead of 2026 in order to be fully prepared. But the right-hander isn’t concerned in the slightest, and he has a plan to get back to full health as quickly as possible.

“We’ll have to remap everything out, plan for spring training being my return,” Musgrove said in an interview with MLB’s AJ Cassavell.

When on point, Musgrove has a nasty six-pitch arsenal: a four-seam fastball (25%), curveball (23%), cutter (20%), sweeper (20%), changeup (8%), and sinker (4%). This is a recipe for being one of the top arms in Mike Shildt’s rotation.

While all signs point to Musgrove being fully healthy for the 2026 season, we wouldn’t put it past Mike Shildt to slowly ease him back into action. Holding him to a pitch count would be wise, as reaggravating that elbow could derail the Padres’ season.

Nick Pivetta will likely be the team’s ace next season, and having Musgrove as the third or fourth starter would be wise. But this means that A.J. Preller needs to attack the free-agent market for more starting pitching.

The Padres have been rumored to be in on Astros ace Framber Valdez, but it is still way too early to determine if that is the case. It will certainly be an interesting offseason for Musgrove as he looks to get back on track, and for Preller as he tries to solve a dire need on the roster.