Padres’ way-too-early projected 2026 starting rotation

Considering the Padres are set to potentially lose Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency, as well as the looming retirement of Yu Darvish, it is fair to wonder what the Padres' starting rotation might look like in 2026.

Will King, Cease, and Darvish be back? What about Joe Musgrove, who missed all of 2025 with injury? Let's predict the Padres' 2026 opening day starting rotation.

Opening Day: Nick Pivetta

Pivetta has earned the opportunity to be the Padres' Opening Day starter after an elite season in 2025. There's a reason he got the ball in Game 1 of the NLWCS. He was worth 5.3 bWAR and finished the season with a 2.87 ERA.

No. 2 Starter: Michael King

King, entering free agency this offseason, could sign elsewhere, but I think the Padres will look to re-sign him to a big deal. He has broken out into an elite starting pitcher in San Diego, and the Padres are likely going to spend on a pitcher. It makes the most sense to spend on a guy who has already been in San Diego, instead of putting money into a free agent who doesn't know the team and the city.

No. 3 Starter: Joe Musgrove

Assuming Musgrove does not have any setbacks in his recovery, he should be ready to go by Opening Day. If Musgrove can be the guy he was from 2021-2023 (3.05 ERA in 78 starts, 31-19 record), he will be a welcome addition back into the Padres' rotation.

No. 4 Starter: Randy Vasquez

Vasquez held down the back end of the Padres rotation in 2025, starting 26 games and finishing with a 3.84 ERA. He's earned the chance to be in the rotation for another year, and if the 26-year-old can improve again in 2026, he'll quickly begin to be taken seriously as a good pitcher in the NL.

No. 5 Starter: Mason Miller

The Padres clearly love Miller, and this would not be the first time the team has tried to convert an elite reliever into a starter. They successfully turned King and Seth Lugo into ace starters. Miller has all the potential in the world, and San Diego gave up their No. 1 prospect to get him in the building. Watch for Miller to join the rotation next season as a project. He started six games in his rookie season with Oakland before moving to the bullpen, and had a 3.42 ERA. That included a seven-inning, 0-run outing against the Mariners in the third game of his career.

Next guys up: J.P. Sears and Nestor Cortes

Sears and Cortes will not break camp in the rotation, but they will be the next men up in Triple-A if guys get hurt, and if Cortes remains with the organization. There is a reason the Padres' brought in both pitchers at the deadline, but their futures are still a bit murky.

That does leave out Yu Darvish. It feels like Darvish might need to shift into the bullpen next season. He struggled in 2025, and it's hard to see the 39-year-old bouncing back after a career full of injuries. Perhaps San Diego will find a trade partner, though it's unlikely. Or perhaps he will retire. It's hard to imagine the Padres cutting him and eating three years of salary, so perhaps a move to the pen would help Darvish settle down.