Padres might be looking to trade the wrong starting pitcher this offseason

This offseason, AJ Preller and his staff have some tough decisions to make. Lately, it has been no secret that they are looking to spin some trades this winter, which includes several players in an effort to clear some payroll.

San Diego won 93 contests in 2024, which was not enough to supersede the Dodgers. It's imperative that they get better this winter, but they might have to take the long route to do so.

In order to keep pace with the Evil Empire of the National League, the Friars are looking into trading away good pitching. Although they have been shopping Dylan Cease, they might be sending away the wrong guy. Michael King should be the one that the Friars potentially move, but it's not currently looking that way.

Padres should trade Michael King over Dylan Cease this offseason

Statistically, there isn't a whole lot that separates Cease and King. They both finished in the top five in strikeouts in the National League last season and received Cy Young Award votes. Their bWARs were split by 0.1 and Cease won one more game than King.

King's 2.95 ERA shined a bit brighter than Cease's 3.47 tally, but his 1.067 WHIP was far better than King's 1.192. Both pitchers were terrific in 2024, and even Preller credited these two starters for keeping the Padres within the inner circle of the league's best teams.

Despite all of that, it should probably be King who is dealt over Cease, both of whom are arbitration eligible in 2025 and will become free agents in 2026. Cease's experience as a starter proves that he is capable of replicating his 2024 campaign more so than King.

This past year was King's first season as a full-time starting pitcher. Although he was lights out and he deserves his flowers, his ability to perform at this level again is much less likely than Cease's. This needs to be a focal point in rebuilding San Diego's starting rotation because King might slow down midway through the 2025 season. He tossed 173 2/3 innings in 2024, which is 69 more frames than his second-highest mark.

King was mainly a reliever from 2021-23, and making that leap to a starter in your late 20s is not that easy. To King's credit, he did everything that was asked of him in his first season with San Diego, but if we're splitting hairs between him and Cease, then he should be the one to depart (and he should fetch a somewhat similar trade value). Cease has tossed 165 or more innings in four straight seasons. That consistent durability should make Preller reconsider trading him over King. His long-term resume is just way too concrete.

In the end, Cease is a proven ace-lile talent, and if the Padres want to contend with the Dodgers, their likelihood of doing so is stronger with Cease in the rotation. Sending away either guy won't feel great, but watching Cease be the No. 1 elsewhere is much more painful than risking King's ability to replicate his 2024 numbers.