Another team with a top farm system emerges as Padres' trade partner for Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease will be among the most sought-after starting pitchers on the trade market this offseason should be actually be available. Reportedly facing a payroll crunch, the San Diego Padres could use the right-hander as a trade chip to address their needs. In a market that is inflating the value of starting pitchers with a weaker track record than Cease, the Padres could have the opportunity to strike while the iron is hot.

All it takes to find the right trade partner is a team willing to part with young talent to upgrade their roster. One such team is the Boston Red Sox, who made a big statement during the Winter Meetings by grabbing White Sox ace Garrett Crochet in a blockbuster deal.

Even after landing Crochet, Boston could look to continue to add to their rotation. Red Sox beat reporter for The Athletic Jen McCaffrey reports that at least one decision maker views starting pitching as their top priority.

The Red Sox have cast a wide net for starting pitching this offseason. Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of The Seattle Times report that the Mariners could exploit the pitching market and put Luis Castillo on the market. In addition to the Red Sox, the Chicago Cubs are another team that has been aggressively pursuing Seattle's ace to improve their rotation. In the event that Boston is unable to land Castillo, they could pivot to Cease as a Plan B.

While he only has one year of control left, he has a strong track record going into his walk year. Over the past four years, he has been one of the league's most durable pitchers with 130 starts and 716 innings. He's finished in the top four of Cy Young voting twice in the last three seasons. While 2022 and 2023 can be both considered outlier seasons, with ERAs of 2.20 and 4.58 respectively, he rebounded with a 3.47 ERA in San Diego in 2024.

On the trade market, the Padres should aim for a similar package to what the Brewers got from the Baltimore Orioles for Corbin Burnes last winter. While the innings total was relatively the same between the two pitchers, Burnes had a 146 ERA+ compared to Cease's 122, as well as a much better FIP (2.92 to 3.30). However, the difference between the two pitchers is small enough that in an inflated market San Diego could get someone who can immediately impact their club over the long haul if they wait for the right deal.

Referencing the Burnes trade, the Brewers got infielder Joey Ortiz and left-hander DL Hall. Ortiz is a starting-caliber infielder that was squeezed out due to the sheer number of middle infield prospects the Orioles successfully drafted and developed. Hall is a post-hype prospect who hasn't quite stuck as a starter, but due to his high-octane fastball could be a successful reliever for Milwaukee.

Heading back to the case of the Red Sox, the question is what would be considered a similar package? Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kristian Campbell are off the table for the Padres in a deal. Boston doesn't have a lot of MLB-ready bats left in their system, with catcher Kyle Teel and infielder Chase Meidroth going to Chicago in the Crochet deal, leaving them with mostly pitching prospects as their best trade chips. While Miguel Bleis and Jhostynxon Garcia are solid prospects in their own right, neither guy is going to help San Diego in 2025.

While there's always a need for starting pitching depth, the inability to land a bat from the Red Sox's farm system could require either a three-team trade or have them look elsewhere to address their need in left field, but there's an opportunity to make something happen.