The dangers of Padres trading Xander Bogaerts are very obvious

When Xander Bogaerts signed his 11-year, $280 million contract in December 2022, San Diego Padres fans were left with mixed reactions. On one hand, the Padres would finally have a good hitting shortstop for the foreseeable future. On the other, it was an 11-year, fully guaranteed deal given to a 30-year-old.

Now, as Bogaerts goes into the third season of his deal having not lived up to expectations whatsoever, his name has been mentioned as a potential trade piece.

But to trade away Bogaerts means trading away much more than just the shortstop. With a contract that big, Bogaerts comes with some baggage, not to mention he'll be 40 years old in the final year of the deal. What exactly it will take to convince a team to take him is up in the air, but it's without question that if a trade does happen, the loss could be much more substantial than many realize.

Padres trading Xander Bogaerts will cost them money and prospects

As Padres fans have grown more and more impatient with the struggling Bogaerts, trade rumors have coincided. Now, it's time to entertain those rumors because of their veracity as the organization deals with financial issues, and see just how much the Padres may need to spend or ship away in order to get rid of Bogaerts.

The most daunting portion of a potential trade is the contract. Any team willing to bite on a 32-year-old who just had the worst year of their career will be looking for the Padres to eat some of that contract. A trade this early into the contract may leave San Diego in a situation no team wants to be in: paying for a player that's not on your team. With payroll skyrocketing in 2029 because of backloaded contracts to both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, it may be in the Padres' best interest to wait until they can trade away Bogaerts' entire contract, or at least a large portion of it.

If taking part of the contract is not enough, the Padres may be forced to turn to the farm system, a commodity that should not be involved in a Bogaerts trade. In the off chance the Padres are convinced, sending away a name like Ethan Salas or Leo De Vries, both slated to be the next franchise players, could spell disaster. The names Trea Turner, Max Fried, Emmanuel Classe, and even Corey Kluber, still haunt Padres fans. All of them were part of the Padres farm system, and all of them were traded away. The risk of losing another future superstar is too great, and with the hype surrounding San Diego's upcoming prospects, giving one away to shed Bogaerts could be a regrettable decision.

After all the potential hazards, there is still the question of who would replace him. At the time of his signing, many questioned the amount of infielders on the roster. Now, in the case of a Bogaerts departure, guys like Tyler Wade, Mason McCoy, Eguy Rosario, or Jake Cronenworth could be in the mix as replacements, but let's face it, none of them should be the starting shortstop on a team searching for a championship. Ha-Seong Kim would be the guy, but the chances of his return are looking slimmer.

There is one more thing Padres fans are forgetting. Bogaerts is a good baseball player. Only last season he was not. During his first full season with San Diego, he led the team in average and hits and was second in OPS on a team that had Juan Soto, Tatis, and Machado. Giving up on Bogaerts now is not the right choice, but the clock is ticking. A third disappointing year could bring even more criticism on an already divisive contract.