Padres living on the edge as low-scoring games pile up in 2025

The struggles of the Padres' offense have been well-documented this season. The team ranks below average in nearly every offensive category outside of their high on-base percentage and walk rate. Losing Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth for nearly a month each hurt the lineup, but even with them back, it has been hard for San Diego to score in bunches this year.

According to Statmuse, the Padres rank towards the top of the league in an unfortunate offensive statistic. They've scored one run or fewer in 17 games this season. That is tied with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for the second-most in the National League, and the fourth-most in all of baseball. Only the White Sox, Rangers, and Rockies have had more games in which they failed to score two runs.

In those 17 games, San Diego is 3-14. The numbers are pretty clear; if the Padres do not score at least two runs, they probably are not going to win.

It is quite a sobering way to look at the offense. Things could certainly be better in San Diego. Friday night's 5-1 loss to Arizona was yet another game in which the offense just never got off the ground. Aside from a few great plate appearances from Fernando Tatis Jr., it looked like the Friars were asleep at the plate for most of last night's game. The stats show that it is becoming a recurring theme.

Of course, there is the silver lining. Among the seven teams with the most low-scoring games (games in which the offense scored one or zero runs), San Diego is the only squad with a winning record. In fact, at 38-30 entering Saturday, they are four games better than the next best team, the Reds, who sit at 35-35.

That has been in large part due to the Padres' pitching staff, which has helped them win close games. The team's 14 one-run victories are tied with Pittsburgh for the third most in baseball. Remarkably, the Friars are 6-4 in games when scoring exactly two runs, the best winning percentage in baseball for such games. For San Diego, the difference between scoring once and twice has been huge. They win 25% of their games when scoring once (3-9) but win 60 percent of their games when scoring twice (6-4). Overall, when the team has scored two or more runs, they are 35-16, giving them a .686 winning percentage when scoring at least two runs.

The verdict is simple. All this team needs to do is eliminate their inconsistency. The team is capable of scoring runs. We just saw them break out to score 11 against the rival Dodgers. They just need to score with more consistency. The Padres have a real chance to be among the best teams in baseball. If they could just score two runs every game, they would be.