How much will Padres’ new owners put behind their Tarik Skubal interest?

We’d love to see Tarik Skubal take the ball at Petco Park on Opening Day. The bigger question is what A.J. Preller will be allowed to offer him. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Padres have expressed interest in Skubal, the two-time Cy Young winner who finished the season with the Dodgers. That’s enough to take San Diego’s interest seriously.

So far, the reporting gives us interest, but says nothing about a dollar figure. The question for José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones is whether they’ll give Preller enough room to make Skubal think hard about leaving Los Angeles.

We saw the Padres spend prospect capital on Robbie Ray and Casey Mize at the trade deadline. Those moves gave Preller two starters for the stretch run. Skubal would command something completely different from the people signing the checks. They’d be committing years of payroll to one pitcher, and they’d have to do it in a market that includes the Dodgers and Mets. This is the first winter we get to see what the new owners are comfortable guaranteeing when the most coveted player on the market fits their biggest need.

The Padres need enough money for Skubal and the starts he can’t make

San Diego’s 2027 payroll is projected at roughly $193 million, including arbitration estimates, after the club finished 2026 at about $224 million in actual payroll. It’s about $31 million between the current projection and last season’s spending. We still have no public figure for what ownership has authorized. But even if the Padres are comfortable spending at last year’s level, a contract for the best pitcher on the market could eat through that difference before Preller could fill a second rotation spot.

Don't forget, there’s a second and third spot they need to fill. Michael King opted out, the Padres declined Nick Pivetta’s option, and Ray and Mize are both free agents. King alone made 32 starts with a 3.21 ERA last season. We can picture Skubal taking his place at the top of the rotation. But are we really handing the ball to Randy Vasquez the following night? Preller would need room to make a serious offer to Skubal, and then be given even more to sign another dependable starter. Hopefully, he’ll have that room while Skubal is making up his mind. The Padres have too many innings to replace to spend the winter waiting on one answer.

Skubal could take a competitive offer from San Diego and still choose Los Angeles or New York. We can live with that if the Padres go get a front-end starter and pay for the depth behind him. If spring training rolls around and we’re still penciling in hopeful comebacks for half the rotation, we’ll have learned more about the new owners’ budget than we ever did from seeing the Padres’ name next to Skubal’s.

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