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Padres can't let Tarik Skubal rumors distract from their biggest offseason need

Don't get too off track.
ByPJ Potter
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Oct 11, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) reacts during the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game one of the NLCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
Oct 11, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) reacts during the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game one of the NLCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This coming offseason, the San Diego Padres have a few roster needs. The general consensus, however, is that adding starting pitching is the top priority. And right now, we're sensing that it isn't a matter of if the Padres will add starters, but who they will target.

Signing the biggest, brighest star is always fun to fantasize about. But Padres fans have been down that road. Shohei Ohtani. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Roki Sasaki. Remember when San Diego was supposedly in on heavily pursuing these guys? The front office came up empty with those signings, and fans felt like it was a lost offseason because of it.

Let's not fall into the same trap this year. Two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal is the ultimate prize in this upcoming free agent market. The Padres are a team that has a shot at signing him, but we should not let history repeat itself.

Skubal is obviously going to cost a lot of money, and the Padres don't need to overspend on pitching. Finding diamonds in the rough are their specialty. But it's not only that. We need to be realistic. The best free agent pitchers do not come to San Diego.

San Diego Padres do just fine signing overlooked starting pitchers

A.J. Preller, to his credit, has done a great job finding starting pitchers who make an immediate impact and don't cost a ton. Michael King wasn't a full-time starter until he came to San Diego. In three seasons, he has a 3.15 ERA in 77 starts. He's up for grabs this offseason, and re-signing him may make the most sense.

Nick Pivetta is another sparkling example. Before his debut season in San Diego, Pivetta had an ERA above 4.00 four seasons in a row. Then in his first year with the Padres, he finished sixth in the Cy Young race with a 2.87 ERA. He wasn't bad in 2026, either, when he was healthy.

These kind of gets should tell us that the Padres aren't ever going to really sign the top-end free agent pitcher. Why would they? They find ways to get other guys and contribute at an All-Star rate. So while it's fun to think about Skubal pitching at Petco Park, it probably makes more sense to settle for a King reunion, or the team targeting other free agents like Tatsuya Imai, Foster Griffin, or Shane Bieber. They wouldn't cost as much, but they wouldn't be bad, either. Especially if you give them a few months working with Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla. Let's not lose sight of any new arm's potential once Niebla works his magic on them.

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