Padres signing Tarik Skubal would be a defining statement from ownership

Tarik Skubal signing with the Padres ultimately belongs in the believe-it-when-we-see-it category. The size of the commitment makes that a perfectly reasonable place to leave our expectations. That’s before we even talk about the teams who would be competing for his services.

But if the Padres new owners actually pulled it off, we would learn something important about how far they are willing to go with this core. Championship ambitions are easy to endorse vocally. An eight or nine-year obligation to a pitcher requires so much more conviction.

There is enough substance here to have the conversation. In Kiley McDaniel’s ESPN survey of industry insiders, the Padres emerged as the strongest potential bidder among the sleeper teams mentioned. That’s based on an assessment of the market, several steps removed from an actual offer or even a negotiation. Still, San Diego’s inclusion allows us to draw up the question. What would ownership be saying by actually finishing this deal?

The answer would be written across the guaranteed money.

Why a Tarik Skubal signing would change the Padres’ rotation and expectations

McDaniel’s 27 contract projections averaged eight years and $355 million. Those are estimates, and the eventual terms are likely to look very different. But they establish the neighborhood. Signing Skubal would require ownership to accept an enormous financial obligation, including seasons when his arm might deliver considerably less than it does today.

We don’t need to explain to the Padres how a contract this big would carry real risk. This is a team with commitments to Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts until they’re 41 years old. But for a pitcher like Skubal, ownership would have to sign anyway.

That is what would make the move so revealing. The Padres have already built their identity around prominent players and large expectations. Keeping that promise requires decisions as the roster changes around them. Every season consumes another year of the opportunity we continue to discuss.

Skubal would offer a particularly forceful answer. Adding a pitcher of his caliber would give them another arm capable of taking the ball against an opponent’s best starter in October. Across six months, he could help the Padres reach those games with a stronger rotation. Could they also afford to retain Michael King? That is where ownership’s commitment would face another expensive test.

There would also be something refreshing about solving a major need through ownership’s checkbook. A.J. Preller can spend an offseason exploring trades, moving pieces and searching for a workable combination. This would put the decisive responsibility upstairs. Ownership would have to authorize the money and live with the exposure.

Of course, that commitment would mean less if the Padres then hollowed out the supporting roster to accommodate it. We would still have to judge the entire roster.

And we should still consider a Skubal signing unlikely. Being identified as a sleeper doesn’t establish that San Diego will meet his price, much less that he would even choose the Padres.

But the significance of landing him is the easiest part to understand.

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