Here’s why the Padres will overtake Dodgers in 2025 NL West race

After briefly taking the lead in the NL West, the Padres are back in second-place. That's because while San Diego went to Seattle and lost two out of three to the Mariners, the Dodgers just finished off a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds.

Still, there is reason to have faith that San Diego can capture their sixth NL West title, and their first since 2006. With 28 games to go, the Padres can still surpass the Dodgers, and here is why.

First, San Diego has the momentum on their side.

Padres gunning to pass Dodgers for 2025 NL West Crown

Since the All-Star break, the Padres have the second-most wins in the MLB. Their 23-15 record trails only the Brewers, who are 27-11. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 19-18.

Since the break, San Diego has won 60.5% of their games. If they continue on that pace, they'll win 17 of their final 28 games. That would give them a final record of 92-70.

The Dodgers are winning only 51.3% of their games since the All-Star break. If they keep that pace, they'll win 14 of their last 28 games, which would give them a record of 91-71, putting them one game behind the Padres.

The Padres also have the better roster since the trade deadline. Their additions of Freddy Fermin, Ryan O'Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Mason Miller have significantly improved the roster. Especially Laureano, who continues to rake in San Diego. Since being traded to the Padres, he's hitting .330 and has a 1.004 OPS.

The Padres bullpen, meanwhile, was already among the best in baseball before the addition of Miller. On the season, their bullpen ERA is 3.01, much better than the Dodgers' mark of 4.13. San Diego leads the league in that stat, while the Dodgers rank 20th.

Meanwhile, the two teams' starting rotations are equally matched, both with a 4.04 ERA. But without the bullpen depth, the Dodgers are much more vulnerable late in games. San Diego just needs to have the lead by the sixth inning, and the game is won.

With a stronger bullpen, better trade deadline acquisitions, and momentum on their side, the Padres still have an excellent opportunity to overtake the Dodgers and finally win the NL West crown.

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