Here's what Padres would need in Luis Arráez trade to recoup value after Marlins deal

Over the past couple weeks, rumors have started to leak out about the Padres' willingness to trade Luis Arráez prior to the start of the 2025 season. Arráez has just one year of arbitration remaining before hitting free agency next winter, and he's projected to earn in the neighborhood of $14 million next year.

That salary bump is going to cost the Padres when it comes to getting value back for Arráez in a potential trade. The lefty does still provide value at the top of the lineup. Even during a down-year in 2024, Arráez posted a .346 OBP and his plate discipline is still among the best in the sport.

But down year it was. He had his worst year at the plate since 2021, and his 1.1 fWAR likely won't be a big selling point for the Padres when they start trying to work him into a deal. He's not a good defender and at some point, even if it's not in 2025, Arráez's carrying skill is going to start to decline. Few teams are going to want to lock him into a long-term deal, and it remains to be seen how many teams are willing to trade for his services in his final year of arbitration on a market-rate deal.

The Padres are running out of time to get value back for Luis Arráez

If the Pads are truly bent on moving Arráez in a solo deal, they have to find a way to shoot for a prospect package in return. In the trade with the Miami Marlins last summer, the Padres sent a trio of prospects in Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee, and Nathan Martorella, along with reliever Woo-Suk Go to Miami. They won't get that kind of value in return, but there might be a trade out there where they can get 2-3 dart-throw type guys that they can put into the development system and see what they can churn out.

More likely is the scenario where the Padres attach Arráez to one of Dylan Cease or Michael King, both of whom are on expiring contracts in 2025, and try to move upwards of $25 million in payroll out the door in one fell swoop. In that case, they should be able to get a bit more prospect value back, and potentially even a useful major leaguer or two, even without paying a portion of the outgoing salaries in that type of deal.

Since the Padres are attempting to cut back on payroll expenses, it's probably in their best interest to try to combine Arráez's contract in a multi-player trade in order to extract the most value out of him. Baseball Trade Values isn't a perfect tool but when you plug Arráez in and start looking at the one-for-one deals the Padres might be able to get for him, you start pulling names like Ronny Mauricio, Shay Whitcomb, and Tyler Locklear. Those guys aren't really moving the needle for the Padres in 2025.

The New York Mets need pitching as much as anyone, and barring a surprise reunion with Pete Alonso, they should be looking for a cheaper OBP type who can slot in ahead of Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto near the top of that lineup each night. NY has prospects to deal, and certainly has room in the budget to withstand adding salary. If there's a deal out there, maybe centered around Arráez and Cease for someone like Drew Gilbert, the Padres might be wise to try to make it work.