Luis Arráez trade rumors make more sense after recent report from Padres insider

The San Diego Padres face a conundrum with their 2025 payroll, projected to be at $210 million by Roster Resource. While they may be looking to increase their payroll from the $169 million they spent in 2024, it's unlikely they'll sustain anything close to the $210 million figure. So they'll have to find ways to get rid of some escalating salaries before Opening Day.

In recent years, they signed much of their lineup to long-term contracts that are difficult to move. In former owner Peter Siedler's quest to bring a title to the Friar Faithful, he green-lit the team to sign some massive contracts. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Xander Bogaerts are all signed to nine-figure contracts and are under control for the foreseeable future.

So in order to trim their payroll, they'll have to look at their arbitration-eligible players instead, a worrisome prospect for their 2025 postseason hopes if president of baseball operations AJ Preller fails to adequately replace the talent lost in these trades.

Jon Heyman, MLB Insider for the New York Post, reported Wednesday that the Padres have received inquiries on Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease, and Bogaerts. It's unlikely the team moves Bogaerts off the shortstop position until top prospect Leodalis De Vries is ready to take over in a couple years minimum, but Cease and Arráez make sense as trade targets.

Arráez is more of a throwback hitter, drawing comparisons to the late, great Tony Gwynn during his brief stint in San Diego. He's recorded back-to-back 200-hit seasons and has won three straight batting titles. Because of that success of getting the bat on the ball, he's projected for a $14.6 million salary in 2025.

The one concern with Arráez comes down to his declining baserunning and defensive value. While he accumulated more than 10 WAR over the past three seasons, most of it came in 2022 and 2023. His OPS+ declined from 134 to 108, which is still above average but no longer exceptional. Maybe that's why, per reports, the Padres have not had progressing contract extension talks with the veteran. Could that be the reason San Diego is potentially looking to trade? Get value while it's high and avoid a long-term commitment? If they could do it with Juan Soto, they can certainly do it with Arráez.

Winning the batting title is great, and something all major league hitters dream of accomplishing, but outside of his 200 hits, Arráez's offensive profile isn't that strong. He did not place in the Top 10 in the National League for times on base because he drew only 24 walks on the season in 672 plate appearances (3.8%). Add in below-average power, with a sub-.100 ISO in 2024, and his overall offensive impact was merely good, not great.

And therein lies the problem with the Padres. Arráez is pretty much a one-trick pony at this stage of his career, but it's arguably the most difficult aspect of the game and he's the best player in the sport at that one thing. That still carries value to a lineup, as he's produced on-base percentages well above the league average, but it just may no longer be worth what the Padres are looking for.