This offseason has been a strange one for the Padres. They're clearly struggling with the loss of their RSN contract while rumors were swirling at the Winter Meetings last week about AJ Preller and his willingness to move at least one, if not multiple, top players this winter.
The Friars dipped below the first payroll tax threshold in 2024 and recent comments suggest they'll look to remain below the $241 million mark in 2025 as well. As of today, Cot's Contracts has them projected at $242 million next year, so they'll have to make cuts to get back under.
With a number of guys, including Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado seeing their salaries increase in 2025, as well as the expected arbitration raises for eligible players, Preller has his work cut out for him if he wants to keep San Diego below the tax line.
The two biggest names that have been rumored as trade candidates are Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez. Both are due about $13 million in arbitration next year and both will be free agents after 2025, so they do make sense as trade candidates on paper.
3 Padres players who could be traded after Winter Meetings
In reality, it's tough to believe that the Pads are entertaining the idea of moving Cease. He's made at least 32 starts in each of the last four years and, despite a challenging 2023, he has a combined 3.52 ERA over that period. Even considering Michael King's breakout, Cease is the star of the staff. Moving him now will save the Padres roughly $13 million in 2025, but it'll both put the rotation in a bad spot and could significantly affect their attempt to sign Roki Sasaki.
Like Cease, King is set to hit free agency after the 2025 season. But Cease is the more likely candidate to move just based on the fact that he's likely to bring in a better return. Padres fans won't be happy with this move when it happens, but it sure looks like Cease's time in San Diego is running out.
Likewise, the writing is on the wall for infielder Luis Arráez. While the 27-year-old gives the Padres much needed OBP atop the lineup, he took a clear step backwards in 2024. Arráez hit .314/.346/.392 last year, good for a career-worst OBP and his worst SLG since 2021.
Arráez isn't a great defender and doesn't hit for nearly enough power to warrant spending so much time at first base. He's also due nearly $14 million next year and will be a free agent after the upcoming season. The Padres don't have many great options to fill in behind Arráez, but if they can get something in return for him, it makes a lot of sense to try and find a deal.
One other guy who could potentially move is Robert Suarez. It might seem wild to trade this team's closer, who's coming off a year with 36 saves and a 2.77 ERA. However, now might be the perfect time to move Suarez if they can find an interested partner.
Suarez had an elevated 3.49 FIP last year and is due $10 million in 2025. He has an opt-out after next season as well, so he's likely an impending free agent. Moving Suarez makes sense, at least in part because the Padres have such a strong bullpen behind him. Either of Jeremiah Estrada or Jason Adam could slot into the closer's role and the Pads would be able to save a bit of money without a detrimental hit to the roster.