Dodgers’ Tarik Skubal pursuit amid Shohei Ohtani concern could trigger Padres’ reckoning

The Padres have finally shown signs of life. Five consecutive wins have pushed them to 55-53 and back into the crowded NL Wild Card conversation. Naturally, albeit, not a direct response, the Dodgers are looking to improve by adding Tarik Skubal.

That’s how this rivalry continues to work. The Padres scratch and claw their way back above .500. LA looks at a rotation concern and considers dropping a two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner into the middle of it.

According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Dodgers’ interest in Skubal has increased amid questions about Shohei Ohtani’s availability to pitch. Morosi also reported that Detroit is unlikely to pry outfielder Josue De Paula away as the headliner of a potential prospect package.

We honestly don’t know which part is worse: Looking at Skubal as insurance for Ohtani? Because…seriously? Or doing it without including Josue De Paula. 

The Dodgers might acquire the best pitcher available without surrendering their best prospect. They could reinforce an already loaded roster for October while keeping one of baseball’s most valuable young players for whatever comes next.

Meanwhile, the Padres are still hoping an injured rotation, an inconsistent offense and another A.J. Preller deadline gamble can drag them into the postseason.

Dodgers can buy certainty while Padres are waiting for it

Ohtani’s pitching status should create a meaningful weakness for LA. The Dodgers have backed off his workload because of lingering knee trouble, even after he went 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA through 85 2/3 innings. His next start remains unclear, and they have no reason to jeopardize his long-term health while holding a massive division lead.

San Diego’s best-case scenario requires several uncertain outcomes breaking its way at once. Pivetta returns healthy. Musgrove follows him. The offense stays hot. The current rotation keeps the team afloat. Preller finds affordable help before the deadline. The Dodgers’ contingency plan could begin with Tarik Skubal. There’s our reckoning.

Keeping Josue De Paula would make this even more painful for Padres

De Paula isn’t simply another interesting Dodgers prospect. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the No. 4 prospect in baseball. He’s a potential cornerstone, the type of young player rebuilding clubs usually demand when discussing an ace of Skubal’s caliber. Morosi’s report suggests Detroit probably won’t get him.

If the Dodgers can complete a Skubal trade while protecting De Paula, they would be adding to the present without handing over the future. Do they have enough to put together a package with him? Probably. But that doesn’t make it fair. 

The Padres know exactly what premium deadline talent costs. They sent Leo De Vries to the Athletics as the centerpiece of last year’s Mason Miller blockbuster. De Vries is now MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 overall prospect.

Miller has been outstanding. He also came with controllable years. That’s a major difference. But it’s not like the Dodgers don’t have the resources to extend Skubal. That alone is why it would be baffling if the Tigers deal him with a huge return.

Regardless, it illustrates the widening difference between the organizations. The Padres have repeatedly borrowed from their future to keep the current window open. The Dodgers have enough money, major-league talent and prospect depth to improve a championship roster without emptying what comes next.

Skubal landing in Los Angeles would also increase the pressure on Preller to respond. San Diego clearly needs another starter, but adding a mid-rotation arm would not close this gap. Another blockbuster would require another painful prospect package from a system that has already absorbed several of them.

The Padres are 13 games behind the Dodgers. We know the division is no longer the real objective. San Diego’s second half is about securing a Wild Card berth and becoming dangerous enough to matter once it gets there. Skubal would just make that path even harder.

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