Proposed Yankees-Padres Mason Miller trade makes perfect sense until you examine the return

Jim Bowden proposed a return for Mason Miller that isn’t bad. It’s not insulting or unserious. It just isn’t enough for the Padres. The deal would send Miller to the New York Yankees for starting pitchers Will Warren and Ben Hess, outfielder Jasson Domínguez and shortstop Dax Kilby.

That’s four solid pieces. Warren would step into the Padres’ rotation immediately. Yankees No. 2 prospect Kilby offers the most upside in the package and would help reload the Padres’ farm. Hess misses enough bats and could eventually settle into the back of a major-league rotation. Domínguez remains young, and while he falls more on the uninspiring side, he can still get things done.

Again, not a bad proposal, but where is the player who can change the direction of the Padres’ future? That’s the problem, and that’s why the Padres should say no. 

The Padres need a centerpiece from the Yankees, not a collection

Miller is no ordinary reliever. When he enters with a lead, it’s time to finish your beer, or Diet Coke, and start packing up. More importantly, the Padres paid an extraordinary premium to acquire him. Leo De Vries, then one of the highest-ranked prospects in baseball, headlined the four-player package sent to the Athletics for Miller and JP Sears. De Vries was the crown jewel of San Diego’s farm system and one of the best young talents in the sport.

If the Padres reverse course less than a year later, they cannot turn that kind of asset into depth and call it a successful reset. Warren and Kilby make sense. They’re the two pieces worth building a conversation around. Domínguez and Hess don’t push the proposal across the finish line.

Domínguez’s former prospect reputation remains more impressive than his major-league production. He’s slashing .231/.265/.393 with six home runs, 14 RBI and an 82 OPS+. The tools are still there, but the Padres would be acquiring another player they hope eventually becomes what evaluators once promised. That’s not the centerpiece of a Miller trade.

Hess has strikeout ability, but even Bowden’s evaluation places his likely future near the back of a rotation. Again, the Padres need more than another potential fifth starter. Four players can still be the wrong four players.

The Padres should make it simple: No Carlos Lagrange, no deal

If the Yankees want Miller, Carlos Lagrange should be part of the cost. Lagrange is the type of pitching talent missing from Bowden’s package: a 6-foot-7 right-hander with a triple-digit fastball and legitimate impact potential. MLB Pipeline gave his fastball a 70 grade entering the season. That’s an arm the Padres can dream on, and right up the alley of the towering prospects they have coming through the organization. 

It’s a little tricky, because Lagrange was diagnosed with a capsular sprain, and the Yankees announced that he wouldn’t throw for approximately six weeks. If his name comes up, the Friars would need to examine every page of his medical file.

Bowden suggested San Diego counter by requesting both Lagrange and George Lombard Jr. We’re fully behind asking. A.J. Preller shouldn’t begin these negotiations by worrying about Brian Cashman’s comfort level.

Actually landing both is another story. Lombard is New York’s top prospect and a potential cornerstone shortstop. Asking for him and Lagrange is fair when Miller is the prize, but convincing the Yankees to surrender both could end the discussion quickly.

There’s a cleaner counteroffer. The Padres should ask for Warren, Lagrange and Kilby. Remove Domínguez. Remove Hess. Forget winning the transaction by head count and concentrate on acquiring the right talent.

That three-player return would address the present, the near future and the organization’s desperate need for upside. It would also give the Padres a much better chance of walking away from a Miller trade without spending the next several years explaining why they turned De Vries into a pile of supporting pieces.

Bowden’s original package deserves consideration. It just doesn’t deserve Miller.

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