3 things that could make the Padres second half, and 2 things that could break it

The Padres begin the second half of the season in the thick of a heated NL Wild Card race. Currently, San Diego leads their division rivals in San Francisco by 1.5 games for the last playoff spot. The Reds and Cardinals are not far behind, either.

If the second half is going to go the Friars' way, here are three things that could make the Padres' second half, and two things that could break it.

Make: The stars play to the back of their baseball cards

This one is quite simple. The Padres' stars need to play like they are capable of.

Manny Machado has been pulling his weight. His .843 OPS this season is higher than his career .827 mark, and he's on pace for his first five-win season since 2022.

The rest of the team's stars need to show some improvement. That includes Fernando Tatís Jr., Jackson Merrill, Luis Arráez, Xander Bogaerts, Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez. Tatís, while he was an NL All-Star, has an OPS of .811, well below his career mark of .872. That's mostly due to his slugging, which is 54 points below his career average.

Merrill's slugging is also way down. The second-year centerfielder has just seven home runs and a .413 slugging percentage, a year after hitting 24 long balls and slugging .500. Arráez needs to hit for a better average. After leading his league three straight seasons in AVG, the first baseman is hitting .282. That's well below his career rate of .318, and a big reason why his OPS+ (98) has fallen below 100 for the first time in his career.

Bogaerts is slashing well below his career average in every stat. His .717 OPS is eighty points below his career .798 average, and he's on pace to hit just nine home runs. On the pitching side of things, Dylan Cease needs to pitch closer to his career 3.85 ERA than his current mark of 4.64, his worst since his rookie season. And Robert Suarez, despite being an All-Star closer for the second year in a row, needs to lower his 3.54 ERA closer to his career rate of 3.03.

If San Diego's stars can play like they are capable of, the team can go far in 2025.

Break: An injury takes out an All-Star

Specifically, Machado or Tatís. The Padres' lineup does not have the depth to overcome an injury to one of their two all-stars. Machado and Tatís combined have been worth 7.2 fWAR in 2025. The rest of the Padres' offense has contributed a combined 2.7 fWAR. Sure, that includes 11 players in the negatives, many of which are no longer on the team. But even among the club's healthy starters. Arraez, Cronenworth, Bogaerts, Merrill, Sheets and Brandon Lockridge have combined for exactly 7 fWAR, which is less than Machado and Tatís combined.

Simply put, if the Padres lose one of their two All-Star offensive players for an extended amount of time, it's hard to envision the lineup being able to fill the hole it would leave.

Make: Trade deadline additions beef up offense

The Padres could use a big bat at the deadline. The lineup is not bad, but it could use some thump. If San Diego could acquire a slugger to play left field or designated hitter, their offense could ascend to new heights in the second half of the season.

Specifically, someone like Ryan O'Hearn or Cedric Mullins of the Orioles would be a good fit, as both would rank fourth on the team in home runs. Josh Naylor of the Diamondbacks would also be a nice addition at DH, but Arizona might not want to trade in their own division.

Break: The bullpen can't keep it up

San Diego's bullpen has already been historic in 2025. Three Padres relievers made the NL All-Star team, including Suarez, Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon. Jeremiah Estrada and Wandy Peralta have also been excellent for the Padres, shaping one of the best groups of relievers in the league.

San Diego has five relievers over 40 innings. All five have ERAs below 3.55, WHIPs below 1.42 and at least 40 strikeouts. Can they really keep this up? The Padres' pen ranks second in the MLB with a 3.22 ERA, and is also second with 29 wins. San Diego has needed their bullpen to be among the best in baseball to make up for the struggles of their starters. If the bullpen even regresses slightly, it could be the difference between sneaking into the Wild Card and looking in from the outside.

Make: Yu Darvish is the X-Factor in the rotation

Darvish's return to the Padres rotation so far has not paid off for the Padres. In two starts, he's posted a 0-1 record with a 6.48 ERA. The 38-year-old is something of an X-factor for San Diego.

He's not far removed from being an elite pitcher, however. Just last year, Darvish had a 3.31 ERA in 16 starts. In 2022, at 35 years old, he received Cy-young votes and finished the year with a 3.10 ERA over 30 starts.

If Darvish can be a reliable starter, he could be just the boost the Padres' rotation needs to make a push towards October.