San Diego Padres: Don’t forget Dinelson Lamet is a top of the rotation arm

We talk about San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dinelson Lamet and whether he is being talked about enough as a possible top of the rotation pitcher.

When people discuss the future of the San Diego Padres starting pitching staff, I don’t think enough love is being given to Dinelson Lamet.

Most people will talk about a possible big three of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, and Luis Patino — and for very good reason.

But let’s not forget about Lamet and the ability that he possesses.

San Diego signed Lamet in 2014 for $100,00 out of the Dominican Republic.

His first full-season of pro ball came in 2015 with the Padres Single-A team. He posted a 2.99 ERA in 105.1 innings over 26 games (24 starts) with 120 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.20, a K/9 of 10.3, and a BB/9 of 3.8.

The Padres really challenged him as a 23-year-old in 2016 moving him across three levels. He posted a 2.35 ERA in 12 High-A starts and a 3.39 ERA in 14 Double-A starts.

Lamet finished the season in Triple-A with a 5.91 ERA in just two starts.

Overall in 2016 he had a 3.00 ERA in 150 innings with 158 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.25, a K/9 of 9.5, and a BB/9 of 3.7.

He started 2017 in Triple-A and had a 3.23 ERA in 39 innings (8 starts) with 50 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.33, a K/9 of 11.5, and a BB/9 of 4.6.

With San Diego he made 21 starts in 2017 with a 4.96 ERA in 114.1 innings with 139 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.24, a K/9 of 10.9, and a BB/9 of 4.3.

The 6-foot-4 righty missed all of 2018 after having Tommy John surgery.

On his way back in 2019 he showed some rust with a 6.00 ERA in 6 Minor Leagues starts with a WHIP of 1.25 in 24 innings, a K/9 of 12.4, and a BB/9 of 3.4.

He settled down once back in the big leagues with a 4.07 ERA in 14 starts with the Padres to go along with a WHIP of 1.27, a K/9 of 12.9, and a BB/9 of 3.7.

Lamet really started to put things together at the end of the year with a 3.60 ERA in his final 9 starts with 75 strikeouts in 50 innings and a WHIP of 1.20.

The 27-year-old had four double-digit strikeout games in four of those last 9 starts.

FanGraphs had him as a 1.3 WAR player in just those 14 starts in 2019 with an xFIP of 3.44.

The pitches

I went back and watched a start from Lamet this past September to get a better feel for where he was in his return and it’s pretty clear what makes Lamet such a promising player.

He has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and regular gets up to 97 MPH to go along with a slider/curveball in the mid-to-high 80s that has sharp break running away from right-handed hitters and into lefties.

The problem with his fastball is that it can be a little flat and when he misses over the heart of the plate it gets crushed, which is why he has a tendency to give up a lot of home runs.

But when he’s controlling it on the corners as he was a lot of the time during the September 18, 2019 game I watched it can be devastating. He really dominated that Milwaukee Brewers lineup strictly with the elevated fastball.

I had a really hard time distinguishing between his slider and curveball. They both have the same type of movement moving down-and-away from right-handed hitters.

The curveball has a little more drop to it while the slider has much harder bite to it going horizontal.

He also throws a sinker but it’s not much of a factor at this point.

In the start I watched he was really sharp with the curveball early but lost the feel for it later in the game. But the fastball was so good he really didn’t need it much.

In that game he got 11 swings-and-misses on the fastball (all of them where of the four-seam variety but one) and he got seven swings-and-misses on the curveball (most of them coming in the first three innings).

This proves to me that his fastball is still good enough on it’s own to get hitters out for multiple innings when he doesn’t have the feel for his offspeed pitches.

But I would still love to see him develop a slower offering. The curveball and slider are too similar and both are still thrown really hard.

I think if he could either develop a low-80s change-up or maybe just learn to take a little off his curveball it would go a long way in keeping hitters off balance and from timing up his upper 90s fastball.