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Going into 2020 Lamet is certainly slated in the top three of the rotation with Paddack and Garrett Richards.
But even going forward I think he has the ability and upside to be a top of the rotation pitcher.
The ZiPS projections at FanGraphs has him going 7-7 this season with a 4.09 ERA in 23 starts in 110 innings with 138 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.32.
There are a couple of things I don’t like about that projection. One being they only have him throwing 110 innings. The baby gloves will be off in 2020 and he’s no spring chicken at 27 years old.
As long he stays healthy, which maybe they’re factoring in the possibility of him getting injured, he’ll make close to 30 starts in 2020 and throw more than 170 innings.
The other thing I don’t like is they have him with a BB/9 of 4.3. That seems pretty high considering his BB/9 last year was 3.7 coming off TJ surgery.
Streamer projects him to post a 3.74 ERA in 162 innings with a K/9 of 11.33 and a BB/9 of 3.56. I believe those projections are more realistic for the type of season Lamet will have in 2020.
I believe at his worst he becomes a pitcher that sits in the 3.75-4.20 ERA range, and at his best his he’s a top of the rotation pitcher that hovers around a 3.50 ERA for the next three or four seasons.
If he can find more consistency with his pitches, which is a struggle coming back from TJ, and learns to take a little off his curveball to keep hitters who are sitting on his fastball more off-balance, I think he can be that top of the rotation guy the Padres are looking for.