Internal and external options for the San Diego Padres 2020 rotation

We take a look at the potential starting rotation for the San Diego Padres heading into the 2020 season.

The 2019 San Diego Padres starting rotation finished the season as the youngest rotation in baseball. They had a 4.87 group ERA and were the 23rd ranked rotation in MLB.

After surprising all of the baseball world by breaking spring training with both Chris Paddack and Nick Margevicius among the starters, they also surprised their fan base by achieving early success and beginning the season with a strong first month.

Then the league caught up and their youth and inexperience began to show.

With both Matt Strahm and Paddack on pitch limits, it was inevitable that a second-half swoon would occur.

Even with veteran Garrett Richards joining the rotation for eight innings at the very end of the year, the Padres had no other starter over the age of 27.

Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer were second-year starters and Dinelson Lamet returned in July from Tommy John surgery to pitch 73 inconsistent innings.

Several minor leaguers were promoted for spot starts as well as several games denoted as “bullpen” games that failed to provide any consistency — or much success.

When the offseason officially began, the ownership team voiced their disappointment with the effort of the team, especially the second-half effort.

Of the many improvements needed to become the winning team that San Diego has been promised, starting pitching is the first priority.

After watching the playoffs and World Series, it has become abundantly clear that championship teams must have excellent starting pitching to carry them through.

Filling in with bullpen arms was not a successful formula for any of the playoff organizations (see the Houston Astros).

The following is a review of who is available in the Padres system as well as some prominent free agent or trade targets for the coming 2020 season.

Internal Options

Chris Paddack

Starting the 2020 season as a 24-year-old, Paddack will have the limitations removed and should be allowed to assume the ace status that all Padres fans hope he is capable of accomplishing.

Finishing 2019 with a 9-7 record and 3.33 ERA, he was the only starter with a WHIP below 1.0 (0.981) in 140.3 innings pitched and the only one with a winning season.

Owning a 1-2 combo of a 95 MPH or above active fastball and a knee-buckling changeup, Paddack must work to improve his curveball to become the ace he wants to be. I believe in this guy and hope to spend next season enjoying a breakout year for him.

He will benefit from having had a season in the majors behind him so that he knows how to prepare for the rigors of a full big-league grind.

If attitude, enthusiasm, or passion count towards success, Paddack has a leg up on most.

Joey Lucchesi

Of the returning Padres of 2018, Lucchesi had the best 2019 in the starting staff. Going 10-10 with a 4.18 ERA, he pitched 163.2 innings and was the most consistent of the returning starters.

The famous churve has the potential to keep him in the rotation going forward if he can continue to gain consistency and develop his fastball and slider. He projects toward the back of a championship rotation, a 4 or 5.

He was the first starter of the 2016 draft class to reach the majors and was probably rushed before he was really ready. There is a strong chance that he will come into his own in 2020 and benefit from being surrounded by more consistency in the rotation as well as mentoring from some veteran pitchers ahead of him should the team add an ace and some depth.

Dinelson Lamet

Also returning from Tommy John surgery, Lamet rejoined the rotation in July and was limited to a pitch count per start as well as not allowed to pitch too many stressful innings. Once considered an ace in the making as a rookie in 2018, Lamet spent his age 26 season trying to get back to where he was before his injury.

Possessing 12.9 strikeouts per 9 innings record in his 73 innings pitched for the Padres in 2019, Lamet has a live right arm with upper 90’s fastball and two sliders that he continues to work on.

To attain anything other than mid-rotation success he must refine his two sliders and throw his curveball more consistently.

Garrett Richards

The 31-year-old veteran signed with the Padres last offseason while recovering from Tommy John surgery (see the pattern here?). He signed a two-year contract and was able to rehab his way back onto the field for 8 innings at the end of the 2019 season.

He will be on an innings and workload limit next season that won’t be as strict as that suffered by Chris Paddack.

As a veteran who has pitched several seasons with the Angels, Richards tried to avoid TJ surgery after suffering an elbow injury in the 2015 season.

Going the rehab route, he has not pitched more than 76 innings since sustaining the injury. He finally succumbed to the inevitable, having surgery in 2018 and signing as a free agent with the Padres.

Richards had ace stuff prior to his injury and can be a useful rotation piece for the Padres in 2020, but his reliability and durability can legitimately be questioned.

Even while pitching hurt, Richards has averaged a 3.15 ERA over the past five active seasons.

Of the other starters on the Padres roster, Eric Lauer, Cal Quantrill and possibly Matt Strahm will get a shot to prove themselves in spring training or could be used as trade chips during the offseason.

None of them were able to prove themselves serious candidates for the 2020 rotation during the 2019 season.

Minor League Options

The Padres minor league roster has two pitchers many consider likely prospects for the front of the starting rotation.

Both are young and have limited pitching experience at the minor league level. Both have high upside and are on the top three of the Padres prospect list according to MLB.com.

Mackenzie Gore

Gore was named MLB Pipeline’s Pitcher of the Year for 2019. That honor tabs him as the best pitcher in the minor leagues for last season (#4 prospect in MLB). That is an unprecedented honor for a Padres pitching prospect.

Gore is projected as a top of the rotation starter but will probably need more seasoning for at least the first half of the 2020 season. It is not inconceivable that he could make a run at the rotation during spring training but I will be surprised if he starts the season with the big league team.

This coming season will mark only his third professional season with his first season shortened while he battled finger blisters throughout the year.

His future is that of a possible Cy Young Award winner, and although I would love to watch him pitch with the Padres ASAP, caution dictates patience to allow him to adjust to the demands of a major league season.

Luis Patiño

As the third-ranked prospect on the Padres prospect list and the 13th ranked prospect in all of the MLB, Luis rose quickly as a prospect during the 2019 season. He started the year with single-A Lake Elsinore and finished with the double-A Sod Poodles, ending with an overall 2.57 ERA for the two levels in 94.2 innings pitched.

As a 20-year-old he has an advanced fastball, a power slider, and an above-average curveball. He has added a changeup that requires more work but he shows promise of being a true four-pitch starter.

It might be too soon to project him as an ace but the 2020 season should provide a much better picture of where his ceiling lies. It is not out of the question he could push himself onto the major league roster before the end of the year.

The Padres have no other pitching prospects in the top 100 of the MLB prospect list. This fact further illustrates the need for the front office to add a frontline veteran and depth to the Padres pitching roster for 2020.