Is There Trouble with Wil Myers?

To put this Wil Myers trade in perspective – keep in mind two years ago he was traded for an ace in James Shields and a very good pitcher to go with it in Wade Davis.

This time around, he went for a couple good minor league pitchers and a high A shortstop, albeit a 2014 #1 draft pick.

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The point is, his potential was much higher two years ago than it was here in 2014, and that is AFTER winning the ROY Award in 2013. Why?

Well, 2014 happened for one reason. As pointed out by FoxSports Dave Cameron, 2014 didn’t exactly come out of nowhere either.

He strikes out a lot, but in the minors that had been offset by his hitting of home runs. Then last year it wasn’t. He only hit .227 before his wrist injury and finished the season at .222 with just six home runs. He struck out 90 times in 80 games. In 21 ABs in the 2013 playoffs, he struck out 7 times. The kid swings hard, but misses hard too.

In the Cameron article, he looks at Myers Isolated Batting Average (Slugging Pctg minus Batting Average) and Myers over the equivalent of his first full season (combination of 2013 and 2014) which was .163. Comparable players with an ISO of .163? Get ready for this one Padres fans, Will Venable, Jedd Gyorko, and Kelly Johnson. Gulp.

However, I’m all in for betting that 2014 was more of an aberration than an indicator of future performance from the down-to-earth kid from North Carolina.

After all, his minor league full season average was .258 with 18 homers and 81 RBI. Certainly we expect big things out of him, and because financially he is under team control until 2020 we can afford another year of being average before his break-out season that the fans and certainly AJ Preller expects out of him.

The two trades of Myers and Matt Kemp are interesting studies in contrast. In one, the Padres are acquiring a potential superstar coming off some injuries but still not far removed from being one of THE top players in the game. In the other they get unproven talent in a former top prospect and Rookie of the Year winner.

It’s an interesting balance that is more reminiscent of the Royals and A’s than just the Rays, who tend to never get impact veterans. Of course, the Royals had a distinctly more homegrown farm system, and the Padres just traded away a couple key cogs in that to get Myers, so we will see how this all plays out. Preller isn’t done yet either – and it will be interesting to see what happens with Seth Smith, Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, or Venable.

Certainly Smith carries the highest trade value of the bunch, and he will likely use Smith to either get back some minor league prospects, but also hopefully fill out the corner infield of the Padres. Or that shortstop position that was supposed to be Trea Turner‘s down the road.

I’m okay with giving up Turner. Sure, he was supposed to be the Padres SS of the future, not the Nationals – but he was several years out and the power we will get out of Myers should easily make up for it.

All that to say that Wil Myers is one guy who clearly has the strength to power his way out of Petco Park. He hits monster home runs, and when he steps in the box the suites of Western Metal Supply Building should get their gloves out. It’s an exciting time to be a Padres fan, but I hope that Myers breaks out of his 2014 slump early in 2015. We don’t need another “outfielder with potential” on this team to join Maybin and Venable.