Xander Bogaerts’ career-worst season should force Padres to rethink playoff lineup

From the moment he signed his blockbuster contract, there was never much hope that Xander Bogaerts would provide a steady stream of value over his 11 years in San Diego. Instead, he'd have to front-load his Padres tenure with enormous production to help cancel out the negative effects aging would have on his game.

Well, here we are in 2026 (just four years into that ridiculous $280 million contract) and it's safe to say that Bogaerts has hit his decline phase faster than anyone expected. The 33-year-old shortstop is hitting .219/.321/.323 (87 wRC+) with 11 home runs and 19 steals, making this his worst offensive campaign since he was a 21-year-old rookie in 2014.

I mean, things have gotten so bad that, around the trade deadline, rumors started to spread that A.J. Preller would only move Mason Miller if it meant offloading the rest of Bogaerts' contract. That obviously didn't end up happening this year, but it's telling that the front office was thinking about using the best closer in baseball as an incentive for another team to assume the shortstop.

As an anchor weighing down the rest of lineup, is it time for Craig Stammen and the Padres to start rethinking Bogaerts' role?

Xander Bogaerts is replaceable, but not by the Padres

Because of the size of his contract, it will be hard to displace Bogaerts from the roster entirely. He hasn't been truly terrible anyway, so taking the nuclear option wouldn't make much sense regardless of the finances.

He does have an argument to stick around the starting lineup on the strength of his defense. The lone skill of his that has appreciated in value since leaving Boston, Bogaerts is suddenly a high-quality shortstop; Defensive Runs Saved doesn't love his work (-7), but the all-encompassing, Statcast-backed Fielding Run Value suggests he's one of the better middle infielders in the game right now (+4). By any measure, he's the best defensive shortstop the Padres have, which will keep him on the field down the stretch.

Even if he were to slump with his glove, however, it's hard to see how the Padres would replace his presence at shortstop. Jake Cronenworth and Sung-Mun Song are the only other players on the active roster capable of handling the position, and both are having worse seasons at the plate than Bogaerts is. The picture doesn't get any prettier the further down the depth chart you comb, unless you have a sudden inclination that Mason McCoy is going to figure things out at the MLB level.

You hardly want a $280 million man to earn his job "by default," but that's where the Padres are with Bogaerts these days. The best bet may be to simply move him as far down the lineup as possible, hoping that his glove will salvage enough value to keep him from wrecking the team's chances in October.

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