Padres would compound the Xander Bogaerts mistake by sacrificing Mason Miller

The Padres can admit the Xander Bogaerts contract has become a problem. Paying an underperforming 33-year-old roughly $25 million annually through 2033 doesn’t sound like part of any team’s master plan. What the Friars cannot do is make Mason Miller the guy that pays for it. 

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee, one question being discussed is whether the Padres could move Miller in a package with Bogaerts. The logic is easy enough to understand. Miller is so valuable that another team might be willing to absorb some of Bogaerts’ remaining salary to get him.

That doesn’t necessarily make it a good idea. It would mean using one of the most dominant and affordable relievers in baseball as an incentive for another organization to accept the consequences of a mistake the Padres made three years ago.

Padres cannot use Mason Miller to erase the Xander Bogaerts contract

The Padres signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract before the 2023 season. The deal always carried enormous long-term risk, but San Diego was operating with a different kind of ambition at the time. They wanted stars, and they were willing to overwhelm the market to collect them. And now it’s time to accept the consequences.

Bogaerts is earning $25 million this season and carries an AAV of approximately $25.45 million for luxury-tax purposes through 2033.

He also controls the process with his no-trade protection. So even if the Padres find a team with the financial flexibility and appetite to entertain this, Bogaerts would have to approve the destination.

As if there aren’t already enough obstacles here, throwing Miller into the middle of it could be viewed as an act of desperation.

Miller is making $4 million this season and remains under club control for three more years through arbitration. That combination of dominance, affordability, and control is exactly why his trade value could be enormous. 

If the Padres are really entertaining this, they should be treating that value as an organizational advantage, not a coupon.

Trading Miller would make the Leo De Vries cost even harder to defend

The Padres traded Leo De Vries, one of the best prospects in baseball, as the centerpiece of the package that brought Miller and JP Sears to San Diego in 2025. At the time, the intention was not for Miller to be acquired as a rental. His years of control gave the Padres a dominant late-inning weapon for several seasons.

Miller posted a 0.77 ERA with a ridiculous 54.2 percent strikeout rate over his first 22 regular-season appearances with San Diego. So far this season, he has a 0.89 ERA over 39 appearances. If the Padres attach him to Bogaerts now, the De Vries trade takes on an entirely different meaning.

San Diego would have traded an elite prospect for Miller, enjoyed him for roughly one season and then used him to help clean up a contract that A.J. Preller’s front office handed out in the first place. Follow that trail all the way through and it gets ugly.

There is always a point where almost any trade becomes worth discussing. If another team were willing to absorb a massive portion of Bogaerts’ contract and send meaningful young talent back to San Diego, the Padres would at least have to listen. But that standard needs to be absurdly high.

MLB executives surveyed earlier this month expected San Diego to demand an enormous return if it seriously entertained offers for him. His three additional seasons of control only strengthen that position. The Padres cannot allow another club to count absorbed salary as the centerpiece of its offer.

They may eventually find a way to trade Bogaerts for a modest return. Bad contracts are painful, and escaping them usually requires money, patience or both.

The Padres cannot keep burning premium baseball assets to solve every financial problem. At some point, they have to absorb the cost themselves rather than transferring it onto the future of the roster.

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