Why trading top prospect would be a shortsighted move by the Padres

Trade rumors are beginning to fly, with the Padres being linked to multiple players, including Jarren Duran. If the Padres are going to upgrade this season, many analysts believe the way to do so is by trading the club's No. 2 prospect, catcher Ethan Salas. Salas, at just 19 years old, is already in Double-A and is ranked as the No. 29 prospect in the MLB.

It is easy to see why teams might be enticed by Salas. He was signed in 2023 as the top international prospect and has advanced quickly through the minor leagues. MLB Pipeline gives him a 55 overall grade, with a 50 power grade, a 50 hit grade, a 60 arm grade and a 70 fielding grade.

With Salas struggling in the minor leagues, it is understandable that Padres fans and front office executives might view Salas as a trade chip. His value is still strong, but if Salas keeps struggling and getting hurt (he played just ten games this season before going down with a stress reaction in his lower back) it might be worth it to sell now before his value drops off.

But would it be a smart idea for the Padres to part ways with a top prospect so quickly? Probably not. Salas is still just 19 years old, and while he has struggled to hit above Single-A, the Friars need to trust he will develop. There is a reason he was given a $5.6 million signing bonus as a 17-year-old. The kid has tremendous potential.

The hidden risk behind the Padres trading a rising prospect

In Single-A at the age of 17, Salas hit nine home runs in 48 games, finishing with an .837 OPS. Although the bat did not arrive in High-A the next season, he still displayed strong defense and grew as the season went on. In August, he had a .737 OPS. While his final slashline of .206/.288/.311 was not great, it is worth noting that every pitcher he faced was older than him.

Salas is also an important piece in the Padres' future roster construction. With Elias Díaz and Martin Maldonado clearly not the long-term answer at catcher, and Luis Campusano still not hanging on at a major league level, the Padres will soon be in need of a starting catcher. Salas, if he continues on his current trajectory, could reach the major leagues as early as 2027 or possibly even late 2026.

Besides losing their future franchise catcher, trading Salas would also weaken an already weak farm system. The Padres' farm is incredibly top-heavy, with Leo De Vries (No. 3 overall) and Salas both in the MLB top 30. After that, however, there is a steep fall-off to the team's No. 3 prospect, Kash Mayfield. Mayfield is not in the MLB top 100, nor is he in the top 10 for his position group. If Salas were to be traded, the Padres would be left with just one high-level prospect in their system, which is a bad sign for the future.

While it is appealing to offer up prospects in return for current stars, it just does not feel worth it in this case to move Salas. The young catcher has too much potential and could play too big a role in the Padres' future for the team to move from him. It would be best for the Padres to keep a strong farm system, and keeping Ethan Salas around would help make that happen.