Why the San Diego Padres shouldn't bring back Luis Arraez in 2026

Luis Arraez is a pending free agent, and the San Diego Padres' choice is clear. They need to move on from the veteran first baseman in 2026.

Sure, Arraez hits for a high batting average. The issue is, there's not a whole lot else that he does well. His defense is below average, he does not walk, and he does not hit for any power.

Why the Padres must pass on a 2026 Luis Arraez reunion

His batting average has also significantly dropped off from his .354 average in 2023. In 2024, he still led the NL with a .314 average, but in 2025, his average fell to .292. His OBP, meanwhile, fell to a career low .327. That was a big part of the reason his OPS+ fell to a career-low 99. Arraez, for the first time in his career, was a below-average hitter in 2025. He was worth 1.3 bWAR, making him just barely above average at first base, a position that usually features more prolific power hitters.

If the Padres do bring back Arraez, they'd be betting on a bounce-back season for him in 2026. Heading into his age-29 year, how likely would that be for the three-time All Star?

Taking a look at Arraez's baseball savant page, he had an xBA of .289 in 2025, almost exactly the average he finished with this year. That means it probably was not bad luck, but legitimate regression.

The rest of his advanced metrics look similarly bleak. His average exit velocity of 86.1 MPH was the lowest of his career and ranks in the sixth percentile of the MLB. His launch-angle sweet-spot rate of 37.1% was also the lowest mark of his career. His 16.7% hard-hit rate was a career low by 6%, and ranked in the bottom percentile among the league, and his career low 1.1% barrel rate was in the bottom percentile.

The underlying metrics look just as clear as the actual stats. Either Arraez regressed badly in 2025, or he was dealing with some sort of injury that held him back from his full potential.

He did briefly land on the IL in April, but it was never reported that Arraez was feeling the effects of lingering injuries. In that case, the most likely explanation is regression. And if Arraez is regressing, there is no need to bring him back in 2026.