Why the Padres must steer clear of qualifying offer free agents this winter

The San Diego Padres can’t afford to treat this winter like a shopping spree with store credit. Not after 2025’s trade deadline emptied a top-heavy farm and tightened the payroll screws for 2026. Roster holes are real, but the costliest fix isn’t always the best fix, especially when that fix comes with a tax, a couple draft picks, and a year of second and third-order effects on depth. If San Diego is going to protect its 2026–27 window, the front office has to resist the sugar rush of qualifying-offer free agents and build the kind of margin that actually wins long seasons.

That’s the core math here. The Padres’ recent history shows how quickly “win-now” can turn into “thin later.” Last winter’s Nick Pivetta play worked because the pipeline was healthier and the draft-capital picture cleaner. Running that same tactic back in a weaker farm context, after you’ve already traded future value for 2025 relevance, compounds the problem. You’re not just writing a bigger check; you’re shrinking your options.

Why the Padres can’t afford the qualifying offer penalty

Here’s the refresher on the rules, in plain English. Eligible free agents can be tagged with a qualifying offer, this winter it’s a one-year pact worth $22.025 million. If the player declines and signs elsewhere, his old club gets a pick, and the signing team pays with draft capital (and, depending on revenue sharing and tax status, potentially international bonus space).

Re-signing your own qualified free agent is penalty-free; paying for someone else’s is where the bill comes due. For a Padres club operating on a thinner payroll margin than its big-market rivals, those penalties bite harder and longer.

Look around the landscape. The Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, and Blue Jays all live in a tax bracket where the extra cost is an annoyance, not a deterrent. They can dabble in the top shelf, eat the draft hit, and still replenish because their budgets and pipelines can take the punch. San Diego is the exception. When the draft board is already your path back to balance, you don’t voluntarily light a pick on fire just to add a mid-roster name at a premium.

There’s also an opportunity cost the headline price hides. A $22M-plus AAV player narrows what you can do elsewhere: fewer swing-man bets, fewer upside platoons, fewer relief dice rolls, and fewer in-season pivots when injuries hit. The Padres’ path to another 90-win reality is probably not “one more star and hope,” it’s several small wins: a second-tier starter who soaks 150 quality innings and maybe two bat-first role players who mash a platoon. You can build that portfolio without touching the QO market.

Even the dream targets carry hidden drag. “Pay the guy and figure it out later” sounds great until you’re patching the bullpen with waiver claims in July. Meanwhile, your rivals, who shopped the non-QO tier, added depth without penalties and still have the draft capital to keep the machine humming. That’s how you get out-maneuvered over 162.

The smarter Padres winter looks different: prioritize non-QO free agents, target undervalued skills (zone control, defensive versatility, chase-rate relief), and lean into incentive-rich deals that protect 2026 flexibility.

Keep your picks. Keep your international pool intact. Re-establish a steady drumbeat of upper-minors help so the next deadline doesn’t require another garage sale. Saying “no” to the qualifying-offer aisle isn’t timid; it’s the only way this roster gets deeper, and more sustainable when it matters most.