Predicting where Padres' Nick Pivetta will finish in the 2025 NL Cy Young race

When the 2025 season started, who did we expect to lead the San Diego Padres' starting rotation? Dylan Cease? Michael King? Those two guys were primed for star-studded campaigns, but injuries and/or subpar starts inhibited both guys from really showing up in 2025.

It was Nick Pivetta who stood out above the rest in San Diego. Finishing with career-bests in strikeouts (190), ERA (2.87), WHIP (0.985), wins (13), and ERA+ (149), Pivetta put together one of the greatest pitching seasons in Padres history. What's crazy is that all Pivetta wanted from his employer was long-term security. He gave the Padres much more, and has already given the club one of their best returns on investment.

Alright, well, we know how Pivetta stacks up against prior Padres seasons, but where does he stand amongst his current competition? Pivetta will assuredly receive some NL Cy Young Award votes for the 2025 season, but where will he ultimately finish in the race?

Padres' Nick Pivetta deserves to be named among National League's top pitchers

Right off the bat, we know that Pivetta will not finish ahead of Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes and Philadelphia's Cristopher Sanchez. Those two are the frontrunners to win the Cy Young Award, and deservingly so.

But it's in that second tier where Pivetta can be jumbled around. It's just a matter of who can present the best case. Before we delve into the other candidates, lets remember that Pivetta took over as the ace of a postseason contender that already had two All-Star "aces" - so overcoming those odds alone is impressive. He also measured up well metrically, finishing in the 99th percentile in pitching run value, 98th percentile in fastball run value, and 97th percentile in breaking run value.

Pivetta's competition will likely be four other pitchers: Andrew Abbott (Reds), Freddy Peralta (Brewers), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers), Zack Wheeler (Phillies). We can probably predict that Pivetta will earn more Cy Young votes than Wheeler, whose season was sadly cut to have surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome. Wheeler turned in 24 starts, which is five less than any of these other guys.

It feels like Peralta and Yamamoto will duke it out to hold the final spot in the Top 3 after Skenes and Sanchez. The Brewers and Dodgers were by far the best teams in the National League this season, and these two arms were more than helpful to earn that label.

Yamamoto's 167 ERA+ is the best among the group, as his 2.49 ERA. He was also fantastic down the stretch to help the Dodgers to another NL West division title. He logged a 0.720 WHIP in his final seven starts, and he handed in back-to-back scoreless starts to close out the regular season.

Peralta edges out the group in strikeouts (204), starts (33), and wins (17). Yes, these are more traditional metrics, but sometimes a sweep in these categories is enough to sway the voters onto your side. Either way, Yamamoto and Peralta will likely finish above Pivetta in the Cy Young ballot.

Now let's look at how Abbott stacks up against Pivetta. Abbott threw 15.1 less innings than Pivetta, but they finished with an identical 2.87 ERA. Abbott's 5.6 bWAR outweighs Pivetta's 5.3, but Pivetta amassed 41 more strikeouts. Pivetta's WHIP is also 0.163 points lower, and his 6.4 hits per nine innings is 1.6 points better.

Pivetta collected 19 quality starts, whereas Abbott had 11. When push comes to shove, Pivetta should probably garner more votes than Abbott. The Reds also had Nick Lodolo put together a strong season, so he may actually take away Cy Young votes from Abbott when voters are scanning over the Cincinnati staff.

So, with all of that in mind, let's call it a Top 5 finish in the 2025 NL Cy Young race for Nick Pivetta. If he places fifth, Friars fans can feel justified by the voters' decisions.