What the Padres need from Jackson Merrill for the 2026 season to be a win

If the San Diego Padres want 2026 to feel like a real step forward, not another year of “if only” and “wait until everyone’s healthy” — it starts with Jackson Merrill being on the field, every day, and looking like the guy they built the lineup around.

That’s the part people keep skipping. The conversation always drifts to the fun stuff first: the “future face of the franchise” energy. But 2026 doesn’t become a win for San Diego unless Merrill’s season is boring in the best way: available, steady, reliable. Because in 2025, the injuries stacked up fast — concussion, ankle, hamstring — and the Padres’ offense looked like a band trying to play a set while swapping instruments every other song.

Padres success in 2026 starts with one Jackson Merrill reality

Merrill needs to play a full season. Not 110 games. From there, the offensive bar is pretty clear. A “successful” Merrill season is somewhat of a bounce-back that looks like a return to form — something in the neighborhood of a .269 average with a .322 OBP and a slugging mark around .466. That’s not nitpicking projections for the sake of it. That’s what it looks like when Merrill is an above-average bat and a feared presence, which matters if the Padres are serious about lengthening the lineup instead of living and dying by a couple of hot stretches throughout the season.

Power has to play a big part in it. 24 home runs and 80-ish RBIs isn’t necessarily a wild fantasy. There’s also the speed element, and it’s sneaky important. Merrill stealing one base in an injury-marred year can’t be the new normal. The Padres won’t ask him to be a track star, but getting back toward that rookie-level aggression changes innings. It creates stress. It forces mistakes.

Lastly, there’s center field. Merrill becoming a high-end, everyday center fielder isn’t just a bonus — it’s the multiplier. If he’s giving the Padres impact defense out there, the entire roster fits cleaner. A “win” season includes him maintaining that upper-tier glove and turning would-be doubles into loud outs.

Put it all together and the picture is obvious: the Padres need an All-Star caliber, do-everything Merrill season with a 4+ WAR. Not because awards matter, but because that level of two-way value is what separates playoff teams from the ones explaining themselves at the end of the season.