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Padres’ Jackson Merrill is having a much better sophomore season than you think

Merrill's expected numbers are much better than his actual stats
ByLevi Coovert|
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San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies | Dustin Bradford/GettyImages

It is understandable for Padres fans to be upset about the performance of outfielder Jackson Merrill. The second-year player has regressed significantly in 2025. His OPS+ is down from 126 to 97, while his bWAR is down from 4.4 to 1.6. Merrill is getting worse, right?

Or is he? The StatCast advanced metrics tell a better story for Merrill. Take his slugging percentage, for example. Merrill has a .401 slugging percentage, nearly a hundred points lower than his .500 slugging rate in 2024.

However, his expected slugging percentage is .478. Merrill's difference of -.077 is the 12th biggest difference in baseball from expected slugging to actual slugging. The same story can be told looking at his batting average. Merrill's average of .254 is 19 points below his expected batting average, a much more respectable .273.

Again, his weighted on base percentage is also lower than expected. Merrill's wOBA is just .309, while his xwOBA is .351. That's a .041 difference, the 15th biggest difference in the league. Essentially, according to the StatCast expected stats, Merrill has been among the 15 unluckiest players in the league in 2025.

Many of Merrill's advanced metrics are right where they need to be, further evidence that his statistical decline is more a case of bad luck than anything more worrisome. His expected stats all rank in the top third of the MLB, as does his barrel rate, which falls in the 67th percentile.

His launch-angle sweet-spot percentage, meanwhile, is in the 95th percentile, meaning he is making good contact more often than almost anyone else.

Merrill's also still providing plenty of value in the field and on the basepaths. He has a baserunning value in the 80th percentile, and a fielding run value in the 77th percentile.

While it is certainly not fun to see him struggle at the plate, Padres' fans should rest easy, knowing that Merrill will be okay long-term. He's still a future star, and his downturn this year might just be a bit of bad luck.

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