The Padres' nagging rotation concern is getting louder by the week

Padres fans, you may want to look away. Last season, San Diego had a middle-of-the-pack starting rotation in the National League. They battled through several gut-punching injuries, yet still managed to salvage a decent rotation that was tied for fourth in the NL in batting average against (.237).

You'd think after a season like that one, scraping through a season riddled with injuries, that the following year would be better. For the Padres, that is not the case.

FanGraphs projects the Padres to have one of the worst starting rotations in all of Major League Baseball, ranking 25th — joining the likes of non-playoff teams like the Rockies, Cardinals, and White Sox. How did we get here?

San Diego Padres are projected to have one of the least productive starting rotations in 2026

For starters, replacing Dylan Cease is a tall task, even if he wasn't very productive in 2025. Now a Blue Jay, Cease was a work horse who was relied on to at least show up every five days. That may be difficult for some Padres pitchers in 2026, including Joe Musgrove. The right-hander is set to return after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but we really don't know what to expect from him at first.

The bottom of the rotation isn't looking particularly strong. JP Sears and Randy Vásquez will likely fill the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation, which doesn't excite metric-backed baseball fans. Sears could be one step away from unlocking his full potential though, but right now we should expect him to be what he is: a fifth starter.

Now let's look at the top of the rotation. King, returning on a three-year deal, is projected for a strong year with an fWAR above 3.0 and an ERA in the mid-3.00s. We'd love to see King get back to the version of himself we saw in 2024, but a few injuries in 2025 had him miss half the season. Expecting King to be in a dominant groove immediately is asking for a lot.

The biggest disappointment is that Nick Pivetta is not projected to be anywhere near as good in 2026 as he was in 2025. He's projected to be over a full run worse per start nine innings after dotting up a 2.87 ERA last season en route to finishing sixth in the National League Cy Young race.

If Pivetta can repeat his 2025 campaign, or come somewhere near that production, the Padres will be in a much better spot. If he struggles, the rest of the rotation's blemishes will become clearer at a faster rate. Obviosuly, it's only projections, but they don't paint a sunny picture for the Padres this season.