Padres’ uneasy rotation question is running out of runway before camp

When free agency officially opened five days after the conclusion of the World Series, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller made it abundantly clear what the top priority was. He stated not only what the top need was, but also how they were going to address it.

Preller said the following at the general manager meetings in Las Vegas back in November.

“Every year, every team in here is talking about starting pitching,” said Padres general manager A.J. Preller. “But especially with [Michael] King and [Dylan] Cease in free agency and [Yu] Darvish’s injury, it’s probably our top need going into the offseason.”

How did Preller follow through on his promises thus far? Well…

A.J. Preller’s rotation strategy is flirting with a risky camp-time squeeze

Cease ended up leaving in favor of the Toronto Blue Jays, who offered him a seven-year, $210 million contract. A contract that San Diego had no business paying, especially since it would’ve meant Cease would be on the books for seven years.

Yu Darvish underwent Tommy John Surgery, which not only sidelines him for the entirety of 2026 but has the potential to end the career of the 39-year-old Japanese-born pitcher.

The Padres managed to retain Michael King on a shorter deal, only three years for $75 million, with an opt-out after the 2026 season. With Cease and Darvish out of the picture entirely, this was an incredible deal to give out by Preller.

While many people forgot, the Padres will also see the return of right-hander Joe Musgrove, who missed the entire 2025 season recovering from Tommy John Surgery as well. 

As it stands, the Padres will have Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and the return of Joe Musgrove as their top-three starting pitchers. The growing consensus is that Randy Vasquez will have a role in the back-end of the rotation, but there is still a desire for one more guy to bolster a revamped unit.

The issue for Preller and company is that they face payroll constraints due to the amount of money spread across Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth. This, coupled with the fact that the team still needs to sign a first baseman, may derail the original plan, which was to make a big splash on a top-of-the-rotation arm.

With the lack of money to spend big, the Padres will need to sign a smaller name to fill a middle-to-end spot in the starting unit. We’re talking about guys like Chris Bassitt, Merrill Kelly, or Justin Verlander (maybe). With pitchers like them demanding not as much money each year, it would be the perfect fit in San Diego’s plans for 2026.

This gives fans an idea of what to expect, and it’s up to Preller to make this a reality.