The only Padres-White Sox Luis Robert Jr. trade that actually makes sense

If the San Diego Padres really are going to roll the dice on Luis Robert Jr., it has to be the right kind of gamble — not the “empty the farm for a guy who’s been unavailable and average for two years” kind.

Because that’s where we are with Robert right now. The talent is still obvious. The problem is everything else. He’s coming off back-to-back seasons where he didn’t stay on the field the whole way, and the production has looked a lot more “mid-80s OPS+” than “center-field monster.” Teams aren’t ignoring the upside… but they’re also not pretending it’s 2023 anymore. According to Francys Romero, the Padres have legitimate interest in Luis Robert Jr. So what kind of deal actually makes sense?

A realistic Luis Robert Jr. deal that fits the Padres’ winter

Robert isn’t a “missing piece” move. He’s a swing-for-the-ceiling move — and the Padres can justify it because the cost isn’t five premium assets and a prayer.

They’d also be taking on real money. The White Sox already picked up Robert’s $20 million option for 2026, so whoever trades for him is wearing that salary.  The upside? If he pops, the acquiring team also controls a 2027 club option too. 

On the field, San Diego can be smart about it. Give Robert plenty of reps in left field and at DH to keep the workload manageable, and treat center field as more of a “break glass in case of emergency” spot — the occasional Jackson Merrill night off, a matchup-driven start, or late-inning defense — instead of asking Robert to run the whole outfield every single night. If he’s healthy, the Padres suddenly have the kind of “too many playable bats” problem that good teams love.

This is where the trade actually becomes believable. The White Sox are rebuilding — and the version of Robert they’re trading comes with volatility, not certainty. So instead of demanding a king’s ransom, they get two useful prospect bets in different lanes.

• Mayfield is exactly the kind of high-upside lefty a rebuild should want: a 2024 first-rounder with size and projection.
• Karpathios gives them a near-ready-ish outfield profile with a strong arm and a realistic corner fit.

Yes, moving Robert’s $20M salary is part of the point.

Robert-to-San Diego has already been floated in the rumor mill, and it lines up with the broader picture of what the Padres are trying to do right now. If they’re also listening on (or shopping) Ramon Laureano as they hunt for starting pitching, a Robert deal becomes less about stacking another outfielder and more about rearranging the board. This package reflects the reality on both sides: upside for the Padres, real prospects for the White Sox, and a valuation that acknowledges the injuries and recent dip in production.