The hard line Padres must draw in Freddy Peralta trade talks with Mets

The Padres should absolutely call the Mets about Freddy Peralta. They should also have a firm price and willingness to hang up if it gets out of hand. The Friars rotation is definitely limited. Michael King is essentially the only reliable starter, they have several guys on the shelf, and they’ve turned to a piggyback program to protect the rotation. 

Peralta would help. That doesn’t mean the Padres should pay as though they’re acquiring an ace. They would be getting two months of a struggling rental whose reputation currently carries more weight than his performance. Peralta is 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA through 22 starts. “Five inning Freddy” has failed to finish five innings in four of his past five outings and owns a brutal 7.93 ERA over his last seven starts. Again, it’s not that he can’t help the Padres, but at what cost? 

The Padres cannot pay for the 2025 version of Freddy Peralta

The Mets acquired Peralta and Tobias Myers from the Milwaukee Brewers in January for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, two prospects who carried considerable value. The Mets had every right to believe they were buying the pitcher who went 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA last season.

That guy hasn’t shown up consistently in Queens. Peralta’s fastball velocity has declined, his strikeout production has fallen and his slider has been getting hammered. Earlier in July, opposing hitters carried a staggering .601 expected slugging percentage against that pitch, compared with .219 last season. The underlying indicators are every bit as concerning as his ERA.

We can believe there’s still something worth salvaging with him. He’s only 30, his track record didn’t vanish overnight and the Padres are one team that doesn’t need seven dominant innings from him. This is probably one of the only teams where four or five competitive frames can work. That could be enough to keep the Friars in the postseason race. 

The Brewers’ reported interest in bringing him back is also encouraging. Nobody knows Peralta better than Milwaukee. If the organization that developed him and watched him pitch for eight seasons believes there is something left to unlock, the Padres should pay attention.

They just shouldn’t increase their offer because the Brewers entered the room.

Miguel Mendez should be the Padres’ trade ceiling

The most A.J. Preller should surrender here is Miguel Mendez. That’s a legitimate enough offer. Mendez is one of the better prospects in San Diego’s system, possesses upper-level experience and could help a major league pitching staff down the road. Losing him would sting, which is precisely why the Mets might listen.

The Mets could keep Peralta, extend him a qualifying offer and collect a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere. San Diego’s proposal must beat the value of that alternative.

The other construction we could stomach is maybe Alex McCoy and Jagger Haynes. That would give New York a young arm with upside and a 24-year-old outfielder who could benefit from a change of scenery.

What the Padres cannot do is combine Mendez with anyone. That starts pushing the package beyond a sensible gamble and into another example of deadline adrenaline overriding common sense.

Ethan Salas, Kash Mayfield and Kruz Schoolcraft should all be conversation enders. If the Mets ask for one of them, no thanks. 

This is exactly the type of market A.J. Preller should explore. Peralta’s value has crashed, the Padres need rotation help and the potential reward remains enticing without costing the farm. Peralta is worth a calculated bet. He is not worth another raid on the top of the Padres’ farm system.

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