Projecting a Padres contract extension for Dylan Cease

Alright, San Diego Padres fans. We're in full offseason mode now, and one huge question mark lays in front of us. Plenty of decisions will be made regarding how the 2025 roster will be filled. Dylan Cease will be definitely be here next season, but there is a chance that San Diego extends him for the years ahead.

The right-handed starter is worth a long-term deal, but let's figure out what that number could be as he ends into his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Padres starter Dylan Cease had a dominant 2024 season

Through six MLB seasons, Cease just handed in his second-best overall campaign in 2024. He struck out 224 batters, which was the third-most in all of Major League Baseball. Cease also led the league with 33 starts, his third time finishing tops in baseball most appearances from a starter.

Additionally, he finished with a 1.067 WHIP, which is a new career-high, alongside twirling a no-hitter. That no-no helped extend a spectacular stretch of three starts, during which he surrendered no runs in 22 innings with 30 strikeouts.

Per Baseball Savant, he was in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate this season (32.3%), 90th percentile in fastball velocity, 89th percentile in strikeout rate, and 85th percentile in expected batting average. He is on the tails of a season that will receive some Cy Young votes, so while he has one year of club control remaining, it might be worth extending him to ensure he remains atop the Pads' rotation.

Then again, Padres may consider putting a pause on any extension with Cease after he struggled massively in his two postseason starts. However, we're not sure that should factor in a whole lot.

Still in his prime, Cease will be 29 years old this December. He has proven time and time again that he is durable despite being a strikeout pitcher, which is a rare combination in modern baseball. His potential extension would undoubtedly be on the expensive end. To give you an idea of what the market looks like, a much-worse Patrick Corbin is capping off a six-year, $140 million deal. He is similar in age with Cease, so we can guarantee that Cease's annual payout will be higher. Zack Wheeler, another right-handed power pitcher, is signed through 2027 with a three-year, $126 million extension.

With all of this in mind, it feels a lot like Cease would be in the five- to six-year range. The two aforementioned pitchers, representing both ends of the spectrum in terms of pitching talent, are each making around $23 million per season. One other layer to this puzzle is to consider that Cease's agent is Scott Boras. It's almost promised that Cease will see more money per year thanks to his representation. And it's less and less likely he agrees to an extension unless it's a massive offer.

A logical deal, excluding his remaining 2025 salary, would be five years for $130 million ($26 million/year). If San Diego wants to splurge and keep Cease over-the-moon satisfied, they should offer him $28 million per year. The Friars are on the precipice of being a consistent World Series threat, so giving a certified workhorse a few extra bucks would be worth it.

Now it'll all come down to Boras and Cease feeling as if that's the right move on their end.