Dylan Cease's playoff debacle should compel Padres to pause contract extension talks

During the regular season, few pitchers in the National League were better than Dylan Cease. The Cy Young voting results won't be made available for a few weeks, but there's a chance that Cease finishes in second place for the second time in his career. That's impressive.

The San Diego Padres made an early-spring trade with the Chicago White Sox to bring Cease to America's Finest City, and AJ Preller couldn't have been happier with the results. The right-hander, who tossed the second no-hitter in Padres' history, went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA in 33 starts with 224 strikeouts in fewer than 190 innings pitched. That's getting it done.

But, when the Padres needed Cease the most, he flamed out. The 28-year-old went 0-2 in the National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers while allowing eight earned runs in five innings of work. Cease allowed a pair of home runs and looked like a deer in the headlights a times during the NLDS.

When you throw in Cease's lone playoff start with the White Sox during the 2021 ALDS in which he was pulled after 1 2/3 innings and allowed two hits, three runs, and three walks, you really have to wonder if he's ready for the big game. Is this really the pitcher the Padres want to keep in San Diego over the long haul?

Dylan Cease's playoff debacle should compel Padres to pause contract extension talks

Cease will enter the offseason with one year of arbitration eligibility remaining. After taking home $8 million in 2024, the Padres' ace can expect a hefty raise next season. The earliest estimates forecast Cease to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 million. But after 2025, Cease will hit the open market and likely sign with the highest bidder.

Given what they gave up to get Cease and how well he performed in 2024, it stands to reason that San Diego's brass would love to engage in contract negotiations this offseason. But Cease's postseason performance may have left a sour taste in the mouths of the Padres' front office executives.

The Padres have a lot of contractual issues to sort out this winter. In addition to a potential Cease extension, Michael King and Luis Arráez could find themselves in line for a long-term deal. San Diego also has players like Kyle Higashioka, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jurickson Profar hitting the free agent market. So while on paper Cease may be seen as the most logical choice to receive a contract extension first, there are other factors at play.

Though it would be foolish to outright dismiss the idea of negotiating a long-term deal with Cease due to his shortcomings in the postseason, it should, at the very least, lower the price. The Padres also have both Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove under contract through at least 2027, so one has to wonder how much of the payroll San Diego's front office can allocate toward their starting rotation.

Cease's playoff clunkers, combined with King's 12-strikeout performance in the NL Wild Card Series certainly complicates Preller's offseason priorities. The Padres President of Baseball Operations will be a busy man this winter, but going all in on Cease may not be the wisest move given his postseason failures.

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