National League standings in order of FanGraphs playoff odds: San Diego Padres fading fast

The San Diego Padres had a lost weekend, losing three out of four to the Philadelphia Phillies, dropping their playoff odds significantly to begin the second half of the season.

Championship Series - San Diego Padres v Philadelphia Phillies - Game Four
Championship Series - San Diego Padres v Philadelphia Phillies - Game Four / Michael Reaves/GettyImages

Before the San Diego Padres kicked off their four-game series at Citizens Bank Park against the Philadelphia Phillies Friday night, hopes were high that the Friars would be able to turn things around and make a push for a postseason berth.

They finished the first half on a good note and were looking to carry over the momentum into the second half. Their playoff odds were boosted by their steak to close out the first two weeks of July.

According to FanGraphs and their odds to make the playoffs, they were high on the Padres. Here are what those standings looked like before Friday night's action,


Playoff Percentage

1. Atlanta Braves


2. Los Angeles Dodgers


3. Miami Marlins


4. Milwaukee Brewers


5. San Francisco Giants


6. Arizona Diamondbacks


7. Philadelphia Phillies


8. San Diego Padres


San Diego Padres: Second half start sinks their playoff odds

Before Friday night's game, things were looking up for the Padres following their dominating week before the All-Star break when they swept the Los Angeles Angels and then took two out of three over the New York Mets. Starting a 10-game, three-city road trip following the break against the Philadelphia Phillies, the team just ahead of them was an ideal opportunity to make up some ground. No such luck. Here are the updated odds following the weekend where they lost three out of four games.


Playoff Percentage

1. Atlanta Braves


2. Los Angeles Dodgers


3. Milwaukee Brewers


4. San Francisco Giants


5. Philadelphia Phillies


6. Miami Marlins


7. Arizona Diamondbacks


8. San Diego Padres


It was not a good weekend for San Diego in terms of inching closer to a playoff berth. Their percentage of getting to October baseball dropped big time losing three out of four. The painful part is that the first game of a doubleheader Saturday and Sunday's extra-inning loss were both winnable games.

To compound matters, the Brewers swept the Cincinnati Reds, the Giants swept the Pittsburgh Pirates. The good news, if any, is the Marlins were swept by the Baltimore Orioles, and the Diamondbacks were swept by the Toronto Blue Jays. It feels like it was a big missed opportunity for the Friars. Fernando Tatis did not start the final game of the series with an ankle injury, but he came on in the top of the eighth with a two-out, two-run single to tie the game, which was a good sign.

Things don't get any easier on the remainder of the trip. The Padres begin a three-game series in Canada against the hot Blue Jays, then head to play the Detroit Tigers next weekend before finally coming back to Petco Park on July 24 against the Pirates. Detroit, who looked like it would be an opponent to benefit San Diego in the standings, just won two of three over the Seattle Mariners on the road.

It's going to be a big final six games on the trip and over the next 14 days will help GM A.J. Preller decide what his trade deadline options are going to be. To be at .500 at the deadline, the Friars need to go 10-3 to make Preller's decision easier. Below .500 would almost point toward standing pat or maybe selling some pieces, but being at least .500 or better could force Preller to be somewhat of a buyer. If they are in the stand-pat or selling mode, it's going to be interesting to see what decisions are made on players that are moved and kept with an eye toward 2024.