Recent history suggests winning NL West isn't Padres' best path to World Series

Okay, we're all tired of watching the Los Angeles Dodgers spend a bajillion dollars on high-priced free agents, fleece a number of teams at the trade deadline, and keep winning the NL West Division. The Dodgers have won 10 of the last 11 NL West championships, and the one year they didn't, LA still racked up 106 wins and fell just one game short of the San Francisco Giants.

It sure would be nice if the San Diego Padres could take home the NL West crown; something they haven't done since 2006. But maybe there's a silver lining that comes with heading into the MLB Postseason as a wild card team.

Recent MLB history favors the NL Wild Card teams, not division winners

The MLB playoffs expanded in 2022. The league eliminated the one-game Wild Card Game and replaced it with two three-game series. Instead of five teams from each league, six ball clubs now get a chance to play baseball in October. The two division winners with the best record get a bye and don't play until the Division Series.

For the last two years, the National League representative has come out of the Wild Card Round. The Philadelphia Phillies won the NL pennant in 2022 and the Arizona Diamondbacks advanced to the World Series last season. In fact, the last two seasons haven't even seen the team with a first-round bye make it out of the NLDS.

That would seem to indicate perhaps the Padres' best path to the World Series is actually letting the Dodgers have another NL West title. LA would then join the Phillies with a week off while the Padres would host one of the two NL Wild Card Series at Petco Park next week.

The two teams who receive the first-round bye won't even step onto the diamond until Saturday, Oct. 5. That six-day layoff has been a sore spot for baseball pundits and experts, as well as the coaching staffs, claiming that the extra rest isn't necessarily a reward. With only 50% of the teams who've received a bye making it past the Division Series, it's difficult to argue that point.

So don't fret, Pads fans. If the Friars fall short of an NL West title this year, let the Dodgers have their little celebration. San Diego has already punched its ticket to the MLB Postseason, and is one of the hottest teams in Major League Baseball. Maybe it's unwise to slow that momentum heading into October.

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