Projecting Padres' NLDS rotation after Joe Musgrove's injury shifted plan

The San Diego Padres didn't rule out Joe Musgrove from the upcoming National League Division Series until Friday afternoon, when it was revealed the right-hander would be undergoing Tommy John surgery. Massive blow. The Padres' starter left the mound early during Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Atlanta Braves with an elbow injury and it was apparently as worse as it could possibly get.

Musgrove said that he hoped to return and continue to pitch in the postseason, but now he might not be back until 2026. As such, the Friars will have to adjust their starting rotation. Thankfully, they have one of the top pitching staffs in the game, and if any team is built to weather the storm, it's them. What might Mike Shildt's rotation look like if Musgrove is a no-go?

Projecting Padres' NLDS rotation after Joe Musgrove's injury shifted plan

Game 1 - Dylan Cease, Padres RHP

While Musgrove's status is up in the air, Dylan Cease is a go for Game 1 against the LA Dodgers. Though Los Angeles might not know who they're sending to the mound — the Dodgers already flipped Jack Flaherty for Yoshinobu Yamamoto — San Diego is sending their ace to the hill.

Cease was surprisingly held out of the NL Wild Card Series, as Shildt decided to reserve him for a potential Game 3. But Shildt may have been playing the long game as well. With the schedule, Cease could pitch a potential Game 5 of the NLDS on full rest.

Game 2 - Yu Darvish, Padres RHP

Some of the Friar faithful were hoping that Yu Darvish would be on the bump for Game 3 with a chance to clinch a spot in the National League Championship Series, but it appears as though Shildt will allow the veteran to take the ball in Game 2.

Darvish was in the bullpen during the previous series against the Braves, but Shildt never turned to the veteran starter. If Musgrove is left off the roster, you can pencil Darvish back into the rotation.

Game 3 - Michael King, Padres RHP

Shildt has decided to go with Darvish for Game 2 against the Dodgers. But seeing as how Michael King just set a postseason record during his start against the Atlanta Braves in the NL Wild Card Series, Shildt could have decided instead to ride the hot hand on full rest.

King struck out 12 Braves batters and allowed just four hits without seeing a run cross the plate or a reach base with a walk. Against a potent Dodgers lineup, the Padres are going to need their best stuff on the mound, and no one on the San Diego roster is pitching better than King at the moment. If the Padres can take down the Dodgers during the first two games of the NLDS, there might not be a better choice to take the hill with a chance to win the NLDS in front of a packed house at Petco Park.

Game 4 - Martín Perez, Padres LHP

If there's a Game 4, it'll be on Wednesday night in San Diego. Cease would operating on just three-days rest if he's called upon to pitch, so look for the Friars to turn to Martín Perez. The veteran southpaw came over from the Pittsburgh Pirates at the trade deadline and has pitched well during his brief tenure in San Diego.

Game 5 - Dylan Cease, Padres RHP

Cease will be in line to start a potential Game 5 of the NLDS if the series goes the way many experts and pundits expect it to. While Cease will be on full rest, so will whoever starts Game 2.

This is where having a King (who used to being a reliever) on short rest could come into play. Pads fans shouldn't be surprised if Darvish is called upon too. This will be an all-hands-on-deck situation. Shildt could run out Cease, and at the first sign of trouble, turn the game over to King or Darvish if necessary.

Though San Diego will certainly miss Musgrove's right arm for the rest of their run, they have arguably the best depth left in the playoffs to absorb his loss.

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