Padres’ Jackson Merrill has a key flaw that's preventing his ascension to MLB's elite

There is no denying that the San Diego Padres hit the lottery when they added Jackson Merrill to their organization. After he became one of the better prospects in all of baseball in 2023, Merrill went from a fringe contender for the Opening Day roster as an infielder to their star centerfielder who should be the favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year in 2024.

Merrill has given the Padres and their fans almost everything they could ask for this season. He has turned into a a stellar outfield defender (7 Outs Above Average) to go along with a 127 wRC+ at the plate. Merrill has also shown a penchant for rising to the challenge in big moments and has been among the best clutch hitters in all of baseball this season. The guy is nearly the complete package.

However, no one is perfect. In Merrill's case, one particular flaw of his at the plate is keeping from being truly considered among the game's elite hitters.

Jackson Merrill's discipline at the plate is holding him back in a very real way

Look, no one is going to complain if Merrill is a perennial 20+/20+ threat who hits .290-.300 each year. Based on the early returns, that could be exactly what he ends up being. He makes hard contact, doesn't strike out much, and doesn't have any particularly glaring weaknesses even though his numbers against lefties (75 wRC+) leave something to be desired.

Instead, the thing that is holding back the most is his willingness to chase pitches out of the zone which is severely depressing his walk rate. Among the top 30 position players in all of baseball in 2024 (where Merrill ranks 20th), he has the worst walk rate by a wide margin at 4.7% with the next closest being Anthony Volpe's 6.1%, and Volpe doesn't exactly provide much value with his bat).

Merrill's issues are somewhat atypical because a guy with a bottom 10% of the scale chase rate typically strikes out a good bit. However, Merrill's strikeout rate of 17.7% is more than fine. Instead, what is happening is that he is putting balls in play that he shouldn't. While it works out sometimes because he controls his bat well, there are a lot of pitches turning into outs when he should be spitting on them. His current OBP is solid, but pushing it to at least that .360-.370 range is the only thing he really needs to do to solidify his superstardom.

Pitch recognition and selectivity is a skill that takes time to develop and Merrill certainly isn't doomed to fail here. What this does mean, though, is that for Merrill to take that next step into the game's elite, he is going to have to work more walks and stop chasing so much. Looks like he has his offseason plan already laid out for him.

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