This shouldn't even be up for debate, but it is. If he stays on track over the final month-and-a-half of the 2024 season, San Diego Padres centerfielder Jackson Merrill should be the runaway winner of this year's National League Rookie of the Year Award.
But sometimes, common sense alludes the voters and they're attracted to the sizzle rather than the steak. In short, there's a chance that MLB's newest media darling, Paul Skenes, could rob Merrill of what's rightfully his.
Jackson Merrill, not Paul Skenes, should be the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year
For anyone who's watched baseball throughout the season, this should be a rather open and shut case. Merrill has been everything the San Diego Padres could have hoped for, and more. But Skenes has garnered a lot of attention lately (especially with his start in the All-Star Game), and that's taken some of the shine off Merrill's incredible rookie campaign.
None of this, by the way, is meant to take away from what Skenes has done. Last year's No. 1 overall pick has certainly been one of the most exciting young players in the game this season. Skenes is 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate, and is worth 2.5 fWAR.
But heading into his start on Saturday, Skenes has only appeared in 14 games and has yet to even log 100 innings pitched. Merrill, on the other hand, is hitting .289/.320/.466 with a 121 wRC+ and is worth 3.0 fWAR. Merrill is also playing out of position in center field after a minor league career at shortstop, and yet he's been worth 3 outs above average (OAA), according to Baseball Savant, with one of the best arms in the game.
There's a reason that the Cy Young Award exists — it's for pitchers. Not that we haven't seen pitchers like Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw win the MVP Award in the past, but more times than not, that award goes to position players.
The same rule of thumb should come into play when discussin the Rookie of the Year Award. It should take a special performance and a down year from the position player group for a pitcher to win Rookie of the Year. The last National League pitcher, outside of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, to win the Rookie of the Year Award was Jacob deGrom (2014).
If Skenes would've broken camp with the Pittsburgh Pirates, perhaps he'd have a leg to stand on. But the fact that Merrill has been part of the Padres' roster since the start of the season and helped push his team into playoff contention has to count for something. Skenes may be the more popular of the two players, but Merrill's achievements in 2024 cannot be ignored.