Joe Musgrove’s dud start against Giants was due to a familiar 2024 problem

After being one of the bigger reasons for the San Diego Padres' surge in the second half, the starting rotation has been decidedly more inconsistent recently. While maintaining the pace they were on was never sustainable, it has still be jarring to see the Padres' starters struggle like they have over the last couple of weeks.

Some of the missteps are understandable, as Yu Darvish just got back from the IL and everyone's arms are tired at this point of the season. However, the hope was that when Joe Musgrove came back from his injury, he would be fresh enough to give the Padres a nice boost.

Musgrove's first five starts upon his return seemed to be a bright spot after he put up a sterling 1.30 ERA during that span with 27 strikeouts and just six walks in 27 2/3 innings of work. However, Musgrove's demolition at the hands of the Giants on Sunday was a reminder that there is a fundamental concern with his pitching profile in 2024.

Musgrove's issues with hard contact pre-date his brutal start for Padres last weekend

Every starter puts up a dud every now and again. While giving up six runs in an inning to a hated division rival surely stinks, that isn't the primary concern here, especially when you factor in that Musgrove is still working his way back from a lengthy downtime. The problem is that in this start, the Giants were making loud contact off Musgrove right from the jump, which set the stage for San Francisco's big fourth inning that featured three homers.

This is not a new development for Musgrove this season, although it is a far cry from his profile before the start of 2024. Musgrove has been in the bottom 32% or worse amongst all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, chase percentage, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage, with his groundball percentage being his worst since 2016. When you give up a lot of hard contact and can't keep the ball on the ground, bad things happen. Even more concerning is that Musgrove excelled in these areas before this season.

For the most part, Musgrove has made his current profile work since he returned. Despite those shortcomings, he is still missing bats and limiting free passes enough that he has been able to wiggle out of jams of his own making. However, good hitters aren't going to be fooled by him indefinitely without some adjustments on his end. Perhaps leaning on his breaking stuff is the answer there. If he can't, don't be surprised if we see him struggle even more down the stretch.

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