Grading the Padres' last 5 first round picks in the MLB Draft

The 2024 MLB Draft is coming up fast and the San Diego Padres hold the 25th overall pick this year. While it is almost impossible to predict who will be available that far down when the Padres pick, we can make an educated guess that high school talent will be on their radar with their first selection based on their recent draft history.

Given that the Padres have dipped into the prep ranks with their last eight first-round picks, they are heavily favored to do so again in 2024. A couple recent mock drafts reflect that trend as the fine folks at MLB Pipeline recently mocked high school right-hander Ryan Sloan to them while Baseball America took a similar route with the Padres taking prep lefty Kash Mayfield in their mock draft.

How has the Padres' strategy of targeting high school players in the draft been working out thus far? Well, let's take a look at San Diego's last five first round picks and how those picks have turned out.

Dillon Head (2023)

The Padres' picked Head 25th overall last year due to his above average-to-plus hit tool combined with his top-of-the-scale speed. While most think Head will hit, be a terror on the base paths, and serve as a strong defender in center, there is a real question as to how much he will be able to impact the ball as a pro.

San Diego sent Head in a package of prospects to the Miami Marlins in the Luis Arraez trade. Unfortunately for him, Head suffered a hip injury upon his arrival in Miami and needed season-ending surgery to correct the issue:

Present Grade: B+ - Head's lack of power upside hurts him here, but the speed is real and the Padres were able to flip him for one of the best contact hitters in baseball before an injury tanked his value.

Dylan Lesko (2022)

Lesko was on track to be one of the first players picked in the 2022 MLB Draft before Tommy John surgery hurt his stock. However, the Padres still loved his upside and made him their pick at No. 15 overall despite the injury, as his fastball/changeup combination was too good to pass up.

Since returning to the mound in 2023, Lesko has struggled with his command. After posting 5.45 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 22 walks in 33 innings last year, the results haven't been any better in 2024, as he sports a 6.08 ERA in 14 starts with a sky high walk rate.

Present Grade: C+ - Lesko was a worthy gamble at the time, but his walk issues are SO bad that it seem likely he may have to shift to the bullpen. The pure stuff is still great and he is missing bats, so San Diego still has time to get him back on track, given that he is just 20 years old, but the results aren't great right now.

Jackson Merrill (2021)

Well, the Padres nailed this one. Merrill was the Padres' pick back in 2021 with the 27th overall selection, and all he has done every year since he was drafted was make San Diego thankful that they picked him. Merrill really landed on everyone's radar in 2022 when he posted a .906 OPS. While his 2023 season in the minors wasn't as dominant, he still impressed the Padres enough to give him a long look this spring, and he won a spot on the Padres' Opening Day roster.

Everyone knows the rest of the story. Not only has Merrill held his own in the big leagues, he has quickly become one of the league's best young players with a .744 OPS as of July 9 that is only trending upward.

Present Grade: A+ - Merrill has been the best pick in the 2021 draft period to this point, and has certainly been better than any of the other options available to the Padres when they picked. He is everything San Diego could have hoped for, and the best may be yet to come.

Robert Hassell (2020)

The 2020 draft was a strange one, as it was only five rounds and was right in the middle of the COVID pandemic, when most organized baseball had been shut down for much of the year. The Padres held the eighth overall pick in that draft and went with prep outfielder Robert Hassell. Hassell didn't get the chance to really make his mark in the Padres' system, as he was included in the trade for Juan Soto back in 2022.

Unfortunately for Hassell, he hasn't been able to live up to his lofty draft position just yet. His hit tool has been more above-average than the "plus" level that scouts thought it would be, and he has struggled to impact the ball consistently. He is still a prospect and has made his way to Double-A, but one would expect more from a top 10 pick.

Present Grade: B- - Hassell is still making his way his way through the minors and the Padres traded him as one of the centerpieces in the Juan Soto deal, which has real value. However, Hassell got exposed a bit as a pro and is an example of why teams generally shy away from using high picks on prep bats, as they can take a long time to develop if they develop enough at all.

CJ Abrams (2019)

When the Padres took CJ Abrams with the sixth overall pick, they were hoping that he would grow into some more power and be able to regularly take advantage of his top-of-the-scale speed. His time with Padres after making his big league debut was a bit of a mixed bag before he, too, was sent to Washington in the Soto trade.

Unfortunately for San Diego, Abrams has indeed turned into a really, really good player with the Nationals. While his defense leaves a lot to be desired with -11 OAA, he has an .850 OPS this season, as well as 14 homers and 14 stolen bases this year so far. Of all the prospects the Padres sent to the Nationals in the Soto trade, Abrams may be the one the Padres miss the most (although James Wood has a strong argument as well).

Present Grade: A - Abrams has been more than good enough to justify where the Padres picked him and he did help them land Soto. However, we can't give full marks since San Diego bailed on Abrams right before he became a budding star.

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