3 reasons San Diego Padres fans can be hopeful for July and August

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When San Diego Padres fans woke up on Monday, June 19, they must have been feeling pretty good about their team. It was still mid-June, a .500 record was as close as the San Diego Zoo is to the airport, slugger Juan Soto was finally back on track and the Padres had just won two out of three against the top team in the league in the Tampa Bay Rays. The hometown team was on its way north to take on in-state rival San Francisco with optimism in their bats and new-found fight in their hearts. Well, those highs lasted about as long as the morning ocean air before burning off and giving way to the southern California sun.

Since that likely sunny morning about two weeks ago, San Diego went on a disappointing 2-9 and rode a six-game skid to close out June. The losing streak was low-lighted by getting swept in Pittsburgh to a Pirates team that was on its own downward spiral, possibly breathing life into the Steel City faithful.

Heading into July, the Padres sat at fourth place in the NL West, 11.5 games behind division leader Arizona. If there was ever a time for Padres fans to be thankful for the Colorado Rockies, I'm thinking now is one if those times. After all, without them, San Diego would be in dead last. Along with Colorado, the Padres can only boast a better record in the NL than the St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets and Washington Nationals. The late June swoon put San Diego further behind in the Wild Card race, 9.0 games out heading into July and needing to leapfrog six teams over the next three months to grab that last spot.

So things look pretty bleak in Padres Nation. With July 4 just around the corner and the dog days of summer about to begin, what exactly do fans have to hang their hat on in a season that seems to be slipping away faster than a teenager's summer in August? Here are three things.

San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego Padres continue the stellar defense

When hitting and pitching aren't going well, what else do you have? Fielding? Yes, fielding.

San Diego may be in the bottom 10 of the entire MLB in things like batting average, slugging percentage, RBI, stolen bases, and runs, but their defense has been top notch. As July began, their team fielding percentage was tied for second among all MLB clubs at .989 and they had committed the second-fewest errors (31) in all of baseball. For those who may be thinking, "Big whoop! So they don't make errors. Whatever dude," I say, "It can be a sizeable whoop, dude." Over the past 10 seasons, World Series participants like Houston ('22, '21 & '19), Washington ('19), Red Sox ('18 & '13), Cleveland ('16), KC ('15) and the Mets ('15) were all top 10 in the league those seasons in either least errors made or fielding percentage and sometimes both, like the 2018 Red Sox. In fact, both World Series teams from last season (Houston and Philadelphia) finished in the top 10 in both fielding percentage and least errors made.

Fielding percentage may be as unsexy as special teams statistics in football. However, in the end, it could turn out to be a valuable reason why a team gets to the Fall Classic or even possibly a key factor in a team just making it into the postseason. Oh, and a quick B-T-Dubs (as the kids say), last season's playoff Padres finished in the top 10 in both fielding percentage and least errors made. Just saying.

San Diego Padres left fielder Juan Soto / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Summer Soto

We're all aware of the incredibly slow start to the season slugger Juan Soto had at the plate. For those of you just tuning in or had blocked it out of your minds, here's a quick refresher. Heading into the May 1 game against the Reds, Soto was hitting .202. The Padres left fielder would quickly build on that just-above-Mendoza line average once the calendar turned and raised his average .061 points by the end of May. Soto started July at .274 with 14 homers, 42 RBI and an OPS of .921. Soto's numbers are in a much better place with summer here than what they were when winter turned to spring and there's reason to believe that, as Fahrenheit numbers rise over the next two months, so will Soto's production.

July and August have been the strongest for Soto over the course of his career. Both months have produced his best slugging and OPS percentages while his July career batting average of .308 is the highest of all the six months of a regular season. July is also where Soto appears to have the best plate discipline as it is the month where he strikes out the least. August is where Soto is likely to exert the most power at the plate since it's the month he hits the most home runs and accumulates the most total bases over the five full seasons of his career.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael Wacha / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego Padres saved by some starters

I'm sure Padres fans must constantly wonder where the team would be if the offense wasn't so, well, bleh. Only recently has San Diego's team batting average climbed above .240 with Fernando Tatis Jr. carrying the best average on the team at just .275. Yet, as the Tampa Bay Rays (.239) are proving, a subpar team batting average doesn't have to be a death nail. In order for a far less than lethal offense to not be a problem the pitching staff needs to be in "lights out" territory, especially in the second half of the season.

As the offense slowly grinds into July, the pressure for success in San Diego will continue to fall flatly on the shoulders of the pitching staff. Blake Snell and Michael Wacha have been the best overall starters for San Diego. Blake Snell's won-loss record isn't what Wacha's is, but Snell's 114 strikeouts lead the Padres staff by far and his ERA and WHIP are second only to Wacha. Both Snell and Wacha will play a huge role in stabilizing San Diego while it waits for its offense to wake up ... and career historical splits for the two suggest that they'll be doing their part.

July and August have been the best for Snell's winning percentage over his career while August has turned out his best ERA at 2.53 on a 16-6 record. August has also been where Snell has thrown the most strikeouts (213) while seeing the second best WHIP and Ks/9 (September being the best month for Snell in those two categories). The guy historically steps up his game down the stretch and San Diego is going to need that from him in a big way.

Wacha, who has impressed everyone all season thus far, is poised to have his best month of the season in July. Wacha's best ERA over his career has come in July at 3.42 which isn't something to light fireworks off of but his best month for winning percentage has also been July where he's gone 11-2 over his career. August has seen the 10-year veteran attain his best K/9 numbers at 9.2.

Obviously the Padres are going to need a lot more than Soto, Snell, Wacha and solid defense to make a push for the playoffs, but you have to start somewhere. These handful of successes through the first three months of the season must continue and probably surpass their historical numbers if San Diego is going to have any chance at a Wild Card run in September.

Worst case scenario for Padres fans? Hit the beach and forget about it until next season.

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