Padres would take on a different kind of risk with Trevor Rogers' projected deal

The heat is on for the San Diego Padres. The offseason is officially here, and it's time for the front office to get to work. The first step for the organization this winter is to re-bolster the starting rotation — though we aren't sure how wild they want to get in free agency.

Maybe the Padres spend big on a superstar arm like Tarik Skubal, or they bring back Michael King, who declined his player option on Thursday. Or maybe they go another route. When it comes to pitchers, there is always risk involved. Whether it's over-spending, giving too many years on a deal, or investing in the wrong pitcher, there are parts unknown attached to the contract.

With that in mind, let's offer a refreshed approach to who San Diego can target in free agency. Someone like Trevor Rogers hasn't been reported on too much yet, mainly because there was a prior mutual interest with him re-signing in Baltimore.

But, let's say that deal does not work out with the Orioles. Rogers isn't signed yet, so that probably means other conversations are going on behind closed doors with other franchises. Maybe San Diego would benefit from Rogers. But like anyone else, he comes with baggage.

Trevor Rogers' risk factor might be worth it for the San Diego Padres this offseason

Since 2021, Rogers has been on the injured list six different times. His durability has been a huge question mark over his career, and is the main reason why he isn't a household name. But he's still an All-Star. He's only entering his age 29 season. In 2025, he received Cy Young votes. So, when he's healthy, he is pretty good. And there are still plenty of miles left in his arm.

Rogers wouldn't cost the Padres a ton of money compared to guys like Skubal or King. He will still seek a multi-year deal, and that's where the risk can be. Does San Diego want to give three to five years to a guy who hasn't been healthy for a good portion of his prime?

His 2026 numbers weren't sparkling, finishing with a 4.03 ERA in 30 starts. But he had a strong FIP (3.45) and WHIP (1.185), plus a great ending to the year. He faced three playoff teams in September, and sported a 2.53 ERA across five total starts, which included an eight-inning, 10-strikeout gem against the Brewers — the World Series champions.

Padres fans also have to love his career numbers against NL West clubs. In 17.1 innings against the Dodgers, he has 20 strikeouts and a 2.08 ERA. In four starts against the Giants, he has a 2.18 ERA. Even against the Padres, he owns a 1.65 ERA across three outings.

There is plenty of upside with Trevor Rogers. He still has prime years left in him, which is backed by great career numbers. But is his durability going to curb the Padres' long-term interest in him?

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