Padres’ Xander Bogaerts reality is forcing an uncomfortable 2026 conversation

The 2026 Padres are going to look a whole lot different compared to years past; everyone knows that. The lack of money to spend in free agency enabled the departures of a few key guys in the team’s past playoff runs.

This largely has to do with the number of long-term contracts that San Diego is taking on. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill are a few to name. Fortunately for the Padres, all three of these guys have produced on the field and have at least helped make the team competitive.

Padres’ Xander Bogaerts reality is making their 2026 plan look shakier than expected

However, not every long-term contract that the Padres have dished out has worked out the way everyone thought it would. In fact, one in particular plays a significant role in Preller’s lackadaisical offseason.

We aren’t blaming the lack of spending on Bogaert’s contract alone, as there are so many guys locked down long-term on lucrative contracts. The only difference is that Bogaerts is the only one who hasn’t produced to the level of his deal.

Bogaerts signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the Padres, with a $25 million AAV. This makes it hard to place money in other parts of the roster.

Bogaerts slashed .263/.328/.391 with a 99 OPS+ in 2025, meaning he was 1% worse than the league-average hitter.

If there’s one thing to at least be positive about, it's that Bogaerts ranks in the top 13% in defense, posting seven outs above average. But it is very hard to get over the fact that his offensive numbers have been way down.

FanGraphs projects Bogaerts to bat seventh in the lineup, making him one of the most expensive bottom-of-the-order guys.

2026 is going to be the year when we get to see what the team looks like without any major free agent signings. If the season is a flop, we can look back at this contract and shake our heads.