Padres’ Walker Buehler is running out of time to earn playoff rotation spot

Walker Buehler survived his outing at Coors Field on September 15. He left with the Padres ahead and only two runs charged to him. It doesn’t sound that bad until you look into the effort it took to get there. Buehler required 92 pitches to record 14 outs. He allowed seven hits, walked one and struck out one across 4 2/3 innings. 

The bullpen turned a one-run lead into a 9-3 loss to the Rockies, so we can’t dump the final box score at Buehler’s feet. However, we can still be honest about his outing.

It was another short one from Buehler at the time the Padres needed length. More importantly, it did nothing to strengthen his case for a spot in the postseason rotation. To be fair, it was a start at Coors Field. But we also can’t dismiss the fact that the season is coming to a close, and Nick Pivetta’s return has made it a far more difficult decision. 

Nick Pivetta changed the Padres’ rotation competition

Pivetta came off the IL after missing nearly five months with a right elbow flexor strain and immediately delivered five scoreless innings on 63 pitches. He allowed two hits, issued no walks and did something Buehler hasn’t been able to do consistently, get efficient outs. 

He followed that performance by allowing two runs with five strikeouts and no walks across four innings in San Francisco. Through his first two starts back, he’s given nine innings, two runs and zero walks. It’s still only a cup of coffee, but it’s enough to change the conversation.

Pivetta still needs to continue rebuilding his workload. Robbie Ray and Casey Mize also remain part of the equation. Michael King has earned the closest thing this rotation has to a guaranteed spot. Every remaining start is an audition for everybody else. And Buehler may just be on the outside looking in. 

Buehler’s postseason reputation cannot make this decision

There’s obvious appeal when it comes to Buehler. He has spent his career pitching in big games. His October résumé plays up, especially for a Padres team that has high odds of being thrown directly into a short Wild Card Series.

His history could break a close tie. But he has legitimate competition in front of him. At the same time, he has taken the ball 30 times this season and helped stabilize a rotation that spent months getting kicked around by injuries. That dependability deserves respect. But at 4.58 ERA isn’t going to cool anyone.

The Padres are choosing a postseason starter here. They need someone capable of controlling innings and keeping Craig Stammen away from the bullpen phone as long as possible. Buehler managed one strikeout against a Rockies lineup playing out a lost season. He has now completed three innings only once in his past two starts.

Pivetta has removed any excuse for treating Buehler’s place as automatic. That’s the new reality. Buehler is now chasing. The Padres’ final decision should be based on who is pitching best now, who can handle a lineup multiple times and who gives an already-taxed bullpen room to breathe. 

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