Padres’ playoff magic number puts NL Wild Card home field within reach

Seven straight wins have changed the assignment for the Padres. A week ago, it made sense that everyone kept an eye on the scoreboard to check on the Diamondbacks games. The Padres were clinging to the final NL Wild Card spot and hoping Arizona would lay off and stop breathing down their necks. Now it’s beginning to look like we need to look in another direction.

The latest MLB standings have San Diego at 81-68 with 13 games remaining. Arizona sits 2.5 games back, and the Padres’ playoff magic number has fallen to 11. The more interesting bit is what’s sitting above the Padres.

The Cubs and Phillies are both 83-67, leaving the Padres only 1.5 games behind the top two Wild Card teams. After spending most of September trying to protect the last chair in the room, they suddenly have a chance to grab the best one. Clinching still remains the first job. But it would be timid to now treat it like the only job. 

Padres can turn their playoff push into an October series at Petco Park

The top Wild Card team hosts every game of its best-of-three opening-round series. That could be a big advantage for the Friars. They are 46-29 at Petco Park and 35-39 everywhere else. They have been a far better team at home, and three October games in San Diego would beat packing their bags for Chicago, Philadelphia or Atlanta.

That possibility looked far-fetched before the winning streak. But there is a catch, of course.

The Padres lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against both the Cubs and Phillies. Matching either team’s record will leave San Diego behind it. So they must pass them outright.

Chasing home field also keeps the Diamondbacks at a distance

The Dbacks aren’t out of it. They are close enough to punish the Padres if they have a bad week. The Padres have yet to secure the season-series tiebreaker against them. They have split their first 10 meetings. Their final three games at Petco Park will decide the season series and could decide the last playoff spot if it gets to that.

That is another reason for the Padres to press now. A one-game lead entering the final weekend would offer almost no protection. If Arizona took two of three, the teams would finish level over those games and the Diamondbacks would walk away with the head-to-head tiebreaker. San Diego needs to create enough distance that the final series becomes a chance to organize its pitching.

The upcoming schedule gives the Padres an opening. They have four games at Colorado, three at home against Miami, three at Dodger Stadium and the final three against Arizona.

Colorado enters the series at 55-94. Coors Field has a habit of creating nonsense, and San Diego’s losing road record leaves no room for that. 

The Padres have earned a higher September standard

A magic number of 11 with 13 games remaining still represents work, and the Padres have secured none of the relevant postseason tiebreakers. Seven consecutive wins have at least earned them a higher standard.

Just simply making it into the playoffs would’ve been a win. But that’s last week's problem. The Padres now have enough separation to protect their position and enough momentum to pursue something better.

Maybe the Cubs and Phillies hold them off. Both teams have earned their records, and San Diego created this difficult path by losing the season series to each of them. The Padres still have to take the shot.

The magic number says 11. The standings say the Padres have a chance to make the postseason come to Petco Park if they take care of business.

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