Padres’ Walker Buehler decision comes down to how much of his comeback they believe

The Padres got what they wanted out of Walker Buehler. Now comes the part that can turn a smart signing into something a little more expensive. Buehler rebuilt his value in San Diego, and the market gets the next vote. His 2026 rebound has positioned him to receive multiyear offers, with a reunion still considered possible.

He made 32 starts and threw 153 2/3 innings, his biggest workload since 2021. For a pitcher rebuilding his career, taking the ball all season is a big win. But we should keep the comeback in perspective. His ERA improved from 4.93 to 4.63, and his WHIP dropped from 1.52 to 1.35. That’s progress. A 4.51 FIP and fewer than five innings per start also give the Padres plenty to weigh before guaranteeing another season.

A modest multiyear deal is a reasonable possibility. Maybe the Padres should explore it. They have multiple spots to fill in their rotation this offseason. We just need their offer to reflect the pitcher Buehler showed he can be now. He earned a stronger place in the market, but San Diego still needs to set a price limit.

The Padres need to put a price on what they believe will last

There’s a place for Buehler in this rotation. We just shouldn’t hand it to him before the Padres see who else they can get. Let’s be fair, San Diego did get a pitcher who kept taking his turn, and bringing him back could give the club one fewer opening to fill.

But showing up every fifth day and carrying a game through the sixth are two different things. Buehler averaged roughly 4.8 innings per start. We can appreciate the work while admitting the Padres need more from their rotation. Too many nights with a starter finished before the fifth inning ends can make the bullpen feel like it’s working a double shift. Just ask Adrian Morejon.

That should put an upgrade ahead of a reunion on the offseason shopping list. San Diego needs to pursue starters with a stronger recent record of getting deeper into games. Give the relief corps some breathing room. Give the manager a chance to reach the late innings without having already used half his best options.

We have seen how quickly an affordable rotation solution can become another offseason obligation. It gets expensive. The Padres should set their limit in guaranteed money and years before negotiations gather too much speed. 

They also should make sure they have a decent list of credible alternatives. Walking away from Buehler would be much harder to defend if the replacement plan amounted to crossing their fingers over the next bargain signing. But it’s not totally wrong to go after another affordable option if they believe they’re going to be getting similar production.

Buehler has every reason to pursue the strongest offer available. The Padres have every reason to make an offer grounded in what they saw and what they expect him to deliver.

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