Padres' successful offseason plan includes a willingness to admit trade deadline mistakes

The San Diego Padres were really the only team capable of putting a scare in the Milwaukee Brewers this postseason, playing them in a number of close games throughout the NLDS. Had a few more bounces gone the opposite way, it's possible the series could have ended in their favor. At the very least, it's not unreasonable to think that, with a little help from some mid-season acquisitions, the Friars would have had a better chance of winning.

Of course, the Padres did add some players at the trade deadline. The problem is that they were completely ineffectual (or wholly absent) against the Brewers; Robbie Ray allowed three runs to the Crew over his 3⅔ innings in the NLDS, while Casey Mize didn't even make the roster due to an ankle injury and his serious second-half struggles.

Now, both starters are headed to free agency, leaving the Padres with little to show for their willingness to part with top prospects Kash Mayfield and Miguel Mendez over the summer. Perhaps the only bigger mistake would be doubling down on those failures.

Padres can’t re-sign Robbie Ray just to rescue a trade that went wrong

In Jim Bowden's (subscription required for The Athletic) free agency preview, the former general manager suggested that the Padres are one of the "best fits" for Ray in free agency. He also predicted that the southpaw will earn a two-year, $45 million contract on the open market, which is the going rate for strong mid-rotation starters these days.

Of course, there are a few flaws in Bowden's logic. I certainly believe the Friars would be willing to re-sign Ray for the right price; they clearly liked him enough to trade Mendez over the summer, and I doubt all of that scouting work is down the drain after he pitched to a middling 5.02 ERA with them down the stretch. The issue is that his value was definitely hurt by his Padres tenure, which will probably affect both his own desire to stay in San Diego, as well as the team's willingness to give him mid-rotation starter money.

I've previously discussed how the Padres need to make a decision on Michael King's own free agency, as he's likely earned a long-term contract with an AAV of $25-30 million following his excellent 2026 season. Given how many holes in the rotation this team has, it might be smarter to spend that on multiple arms who can build out the depth chart, rather than just one who absolutely has to carry the pitching staff.

That analysis is even more true for Ray. If he's asking for anything close to Bowden's projection of $22.5 million per year, it's time to move on. There's just simply not enough cash on hand for A.J. Preller to fill out all of the remaining spots in the starting five if he's spending that kind of money on a pitcher who looked lost with the organization.

If Ray is forced to settle for a below-market deal and is willing to return to San Diego, there's some logic in pursuing a reunion. Otherwise, Preller needs to accept his trade-deadline mistake and move on to bolder pursuits.

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