Should the Padres sign two starters instead of re-signing Michael King?

Michael King has officially made one of the most obvious decisions of the offseason, opting out of his contract with the San Diego Padres. He will now return to free agency following his brilliant 2026 campaign, this time without the baggage of a qualifying offer weighing him down.

This was always the risk when the Friars inked him to that peculiarly constructed three-year contract a year ago. The Padres got one year of ace-caliber production for a relative bargain ($17 million), but now have no control over King's future. Meanwhile, the right-hander has left $58 million on the table over the next two years, a total he should have no trouble beating in free agency.

The ramifications of a potential departure are obvious -- no King means the Padres don't have an ace. We saw just how important a starting pitcher of his caliber is in the postseason, as he set a wicked tone in the Wild Card Round against the Cubs' league-leading offense that they couldn't recover from. By all accounts, keeping him in San Diego appears to be the biggest priority for A.J. Preller's front office this offseason.

But what if there's another path?

Padres can't lose sight of the rest of their rotation just to appease Michael King

By no means am I suggest that letting King walk is the optimal decision for the Friars. I'm just trying to acknowledge reality, which states that King is one of the three-best non-Skubal starters on the market this offseason (alongside Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray) and is almost certainly going to receive a nine-figure deal.

The Padres, of course, already have more than enough of those on the books, most of which are owed to players already in their 30s. King falls into that bucket as well, as he'll turn 32 in May. A deal guaranteeing him between $125-150 million over the next four or five years is a fair valuation for his services, but that's also a huge risk for an already old roster to be taking.

And it's not like the Padres are just one starter away. Their current 2027 rotation projection goes just three arms deep: Randy Vásquez, Joe Musgrove, and JP Sears. Considering Musgrove hasn't made a MLB start in more than two years and Sears only pitched 32⅔ innings this year, I think it's fair to say Vásquez is the only reliable one in that group.

What this team needs more than anything is depth. It won't be as flashy as a big contract for King, but taking the ~$30 million AAV he's likely to get and spreading out to a number of quality arms would be prudent. You could easily sign a couple of starters with that kind of money, from big-upside bounce-back bets (Zac Gallen, Shane Bieber, Kris Bubic) to more reliable mid-rotation starters (Nick Martinez, Jack Flaherty, Matthew Boyd).

Getting King back is obviously a priority, but one guy can't fill out a rotation by himself. If his market explodes past a comfortable point, the Padres would benefit from shifting their focus.

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