Padres struggling to keep up in free agency as NL West opponents continue making moves

Heading into the new year, three teams in the National League West have made a big splash in free agency. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Francisco Giants have handed massive contracts to Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and Willy Adames respectively in the division's arms race. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have yet to make any major league signings this offseason.

Now, at this point of the off-season, there aren't many quality free agents left for the Padres to pick up. While they have a strong roster coming off a 93-win season and one win away from advancing to their second NLCS in three years, there are some massive holes on their roster. Not only do they have to replace key contributors that reached free agency, but their pitching depth is very suspect.

The Padres face some payroll concerns for 2025. Roster Resource currently projects San Diego's payroll for $210 million, and it is unlikely they maintain that number. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last month that while payroll is likely to be higher than the $169 million for 2024, it will be lower than the $210 million figure.

Long story short, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has his work cut out for him this offseason to field a competitive roster in what should be a tougher division in 2025. So far, the Padres have yet to make a major league signing, and have only been linked to one player in free agency rumors.

Padres going all in on Roki Sasaki?

Part of the Padres' inaction could be tied to their pursuit of Japanese star right-hander Roki Sasaki. The 23-year-old was posted at the start of the Winter Meetings last month and will sign later this month. As many as 20 teams prepared a presentation to lure the right-hander, with the Padres being one of seven teams that earned a meeting with Sasaki and his agent, Joel Wolfe.

It makes sense for the Padres to be as aggressive as they are regarding Sasaki, adding an impact talent to their starting rotation for pennies on the dollar. The right-hander is subject to amateur bonus pool rules, which makes money less of an obstacle to sign him. San Diego would only have to pay the signing bonus plus a pre-arbitration salary of around $760K.

The Padres don't have much rotation depth to work with. Joe Musgrove will miss much of the 2025 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, with his availability and effectiveness down the stretch also in doubt. Michael King and Dylan Cease are both coming off fantastic 2024 seasons, but are in their final year of control before hitting free agency. The Padres also have Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, and Adam Mazur as 40-man depth options to fill the bottom of their rotation, but don't move the needle forward.

While Sasaki seems to be plan A for San Diego, it's far from given that he'll sign with them. While many MLB executives predict that he'll sign with their division rival in Los Angeles, the Padres should still be considered a strong destination.

Where can the Padres look to add to their roster in free agency?

Whether or not the Padres can successfully lure Sasaki to San Diego is only one piece of the puzzle. It's unlikely they'll take on major payroll additions, so the types of free agents they should target are those looking to rebuild their value and hit the market next winter. Players such as Jakob Junis, Ramon Laureano, Brendan Rodgers, Max Scherzer, or Colin Rea make a lot of sense.

Even though the Padres may dabble in the free agent market, most of their signings will likely go toward the margins of their active roster. That leaves the trade market as the best option to address their biggest needs. While Preller is a shrewd dealer, the Padres don't have much to offer after emptying much of their farm system to get Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez last season.

If they're looking to add more payroll flexibility, they'll need to consider moving some of their more expensive players. Cease and Arraez have both been bandied about in trade rumors, as the Padres could alleviate salary by moving them for prospects and then flipping them to another club to address their needs.