MLB execs predict Roki Sasaki chase will end in heartbreaker for Padres

Japanese star pitcher Roki Sasaki is arguably the top remaining free agent on the market. After being posted at the start of the Winter Meetings, he will likely sign after Jan. 15 and count towards the 2025 international signing class.

In their annual MLB Pipeline Executive survey, all 30 front offices were asked about which team Sasaki will ultimately sign with. MLB prospect writer Jonathan Mayo published the results, with 11 of them predicting the right-hander signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The San Diego Padres finished second with seven votes.

The Dodgers make a lot of sense as a destination, for obvious reasons. They just won a World Series in impressive fashion and have two high-profile Japanese stars already on their roster in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers are also excellent at fine-tuning the arsenals to maximize the performances of the pitchers they have.

Throughout much of the offseason, the two Southern California clubs have been seen as the favorites to land Sasaki. Like the Dodgers, the Padres have some big ties to Japan, with staff ace Yu Darvish and special assistant Hideo Nomo leading the recruiting efforts. Both pitchers were instrumental in blazing the trail for some of the best Japanese pitchers to take their talents to Major League Baseball.

Sasaki's agent Joel Wolfe said at the Winter Meetings that there's an argument to be made for him to sign with a small or mid-market club to create a softer landing, implying the media in Japan was tough on the right-hander the past couple of seasons. The Padres fit the mold of a mid-market club, which would give Sasaki a much softer landing than the Dodgers, but it hardly gives them a unique advantage.

At the Winter Meetings, Padres manager Mike Shildt expressed optimism about his team's chances to sign Sasaki. However, the Padres themselves do not view themselves as the prohibitive favorites to land him, according toThe Athletic's Dennis Lin.

After failing to close out the Dodgers in last season's division series, losing Sasaki to them in free agency would sting doubly hard. San Diego was in position to eliminate their hated division rival after taking a 2-1 series lead but failed to score a run in the final two games, then watched them go on to win it all.